Armies line up for important battle with ISIS
BAGHDAD — An unlikely array of forces is converging on the city of Mosul, lining up for a battle on the historic plains of northern Iraq that is likely to be decisive in the war against the Islamic State group.
The tacit alliance — Iraqi troops alongside Shiite militiamen, Sunni Arab tribesmen, Kurdish fighters and U. S special forces — underscores the importance of this battle. Retaking Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, would effectively break the back of the militant group, ending their self- declared “caliphate,” at least in Iraq.
But victory doesn’t mean an
end to the conflict. In a post- Islamic State Iraq, the enmities and rivalries among the players in the anti-IS coalition could easily erupt.
The battle, expected near the end of the year, threatens to be long and grueling. If IS fighters dig in against an assault, they have hundreds of thousands of residents in the city as potential human shields. And as residents flee, they fuel the humanitarian crisis in Iraq’s Kurdish region around Mosul, where camps are already overcrowded with more than 1.6 million people displaced over the past two years. Humanitarian groups are rushing to prepare for potentially 1 million more who could be displaced by a Mosul assault.
The biggest prize captured by the militants after they overran much of northern, western and central Iraq in the summer of 2014, Mosul has been vital for the Islamic State group. The reserves in its banks provided a massive cash boost to the group, and the city’s infrastructure and resources helped IS as it set up its caliphate across Iraq and Syria.
Mosul was the location chosen by Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to make his first public appearance after declaring the caliphate, a triumphant sermon delivered at a historic mosque in the old city. For the past two years, much of the leadership seems to have operated from Mosul.
If Mosul is retaken, it would be a nearly complete reversal of the jihadis’ 2014 sweep. The group would be left with only a few pockets of territory in Iraq. IS fighters have already responded to battlefield losses by reverting to guerrilla- style tactics or retreating into neighboring Syria to defend the group’s territory there, which is also rapidly eroding.
For weeks, the disparate forces have clawed back territory in Nineveh province, where Mosul is located, seizing villages and key supply lines. Still, the Iraqi military’s closest position is some 30 miles south of Mosul and there remain dozens of militant- held villages with civilian populations the troops must take before reaching the city’s outskirts. Kurdish forces are closer, some within 10 miles of the city to the north and east.
U.S.-led coalition forces have sped up training for Iraqi troops and Kurdish fighters, condensing courses that once took more than two months into just four weeks.
Still, Iraq’s military is thousands of soldiers short of the estimated 30,000 troops needed to launch the assault, and the existing forces are stretched thin trying to hold other recaptured territory, particularly in western Anbar province.
Iraq’s “biggest challenge is generating the forces required to get to Mosul,” said Maj. Gen. Gary Volesky, the head of U. S ground forces in Iraq. “If you want to pull someone out of Anbar to go to Mosul, you’ve got to put somebody else there.”
Iraq’s military fell apart when it fled Mosul in the face of the IS blitz two years ago, with a third of its troops melting away. Since then, the military has been slowly rebuilding, while other armed forces such as Shiite militias and Iraq’s Kurdish forces have steadily grown in strength.
The rivalries within the alliance are already starting to show and are likely to come to a head once IS falls.
The Kurds, who seized large swaths of territory during the fight against the militants, want to keep it. Iranian- backed Shiite militias demand recognition for the political and military strength they have garnered during the war. The Sunni minority is deeply worried about Shiite domination and discrimination, and those fears are likely only to grow as the community tries to recover from Islamic State rule and return to their homes.
The Shiite- led government in Baghdad will have to balance among these factions.