Why the health care bill would fail, why it may not
WASHINGTON — There are many reasons why the Senate will probably reject Republicans’ crowning bill razing much of former President Barack Obama’s health care law. There are fewer why Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell might revive it and avert a GOP humiliation.
Leaders say the Senate will vote Tuesday on their health care legislation. They’ve postponed votes twice because too many Republicans were poised to vote no. That could happen again.
IT FAILS: AWFUL POLL NUMBERS
In an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll this month, 51 percent supported Obama’s statute while just 22 percent backed GOP legislation.
AWFUL CBO NUMBERS
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said under McConnell’s plan, 22 million more people would be uninsured by 2026, mostly Medicaid recipients and people buying private policies. For single people, the typical deductible — out-of-pocket expenses before insurance defrays costs — would balloon that year to $13,000, up from $5,000 under Obama’s law.
AWFUL SENATE NUMBERS
With a 52-48 GOP majority, the bill would survive if no more than two Republicans oppose it. With the indefinite absence of the cancer-stricken Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., McConnell’s margin of error shrinks to one.
PRESIDENTIAL DRAG
President Donald Trump wants “Obamacare” repealed.
He also has public approval ratings below 40 percent — and a propensity for turning on people.
IT PASSES: MCCONNELL
The health bill’s floundering has tarnished McConnell’s reputation as a legislative mastermind. Many Republicans privately say if the votes were gettable, he’d have gotten them already.
But the 33-year Senate veteran is wily and doesn’t want his record stained with this failure. He understands what GOP senators need and has time, and if anyone can rescue the legislation, it’s him.
TRUMP FACTOR
GOP senators cross Trump at their own peril. Eight in 10 Republicans still rate him favorably. In the 2018 midterm elections, when turnout is traditionally down, those loyal voters could make a difference.