TRUMP SHEDS SUPPORTERS LIKE NO OTHER PRESIDENT
President Donald Trump’s poll numbers are bad and getting worse. He began his presidency on shaky ground; on Inauguration Day, only about 45 percent of Americans said they approved of the job he was doing. Last week, the Gallup Poll reported that Trump’s job approval had sagged to a low of 34 percent.
Other surveys’ find- ings are slightly less dire, but all show the same downward trend. No president has fallen so low in public esteem so early in his tenure.
Those aren’t the only daunting numbers Trump has had to contemplate. The president’s disapproval rating, the share of Americans who think he’s doing a bad job, rose above 50 percent faster than any of his predecessors’.
His own campaign pollster, Tony Fabrizio, reported numbers last week that show his base eroding. Trump’s support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, while still strong at 75 percent, has declined from earlier highs, Fabrizio said.
It’s true that most of Trump’s most fervent supporters are still committed to him. But his less fervent supporters — let’s call them “soft Trump voters” — are drifting away.
The data site FiveThirtyEight has been polling thousands of voters who supported Trump on Election Day, and has classified about 15 percent of them as “reluctant Trump voters” — people who went for Trump but said they were “not excited” about their vote. These reluctant Trump voters are often independents or even Democrats, not committed Republicans.
This month, only 63 percent of them said they approved of the job Trump was doing as president. When asked if they would vote for Trump a second time, only 48 percent said yes, and only 12 percent said “definitely yes.” That’s not a reliable prediction of what they’ll do in 2020 if Trump runs for re-election, but it’s a pretty clear sign of buyer’s remorse.
Why are so many Trump voters edging away?
Pollsters who have conducted detailed interviews and focus groups say the most important factor may be that many have been disappointed by Trump’s failure to deliver on some of his biggest promises: new manufacturing jobs, a middle-class tax cut and lower health care costs.
Congress’ failure to repeal or replace the Affordable Care Act is a case in point. Soft Trump voters, including women, ranked health care as a high priority — higher than hard Trump voters, who cared more about immigration and terrorism. So Trump’s rage at the Republican-led Senate for its inability to pass a bill is not misplaced; the legislative debacle cost him support among the voters who helped him win.
The president’s decline in the polls isn’t irreversible. Bill Clinton suffered similar (if less acute) setbacks in his first year, but went on to win reelection easily.
“The key questions are: How many jobs are being created? And are wages going up? If those two things happen, his numbers are going to improve,” the Republican pollster David Winston told me. “He needs one big legislative outcome, like tax reform, to show that he has pushed things forward.”
Maybe. But that makes Trump’s decision to launch attacks on the leaders of his own party in Congress look counterproductive. A president with an approval rating below 40 percent, and a base that’s fraying, may find that he needs McConnell and House Speaker Paul D. Ryan as much as they need him.
Politics is about addition, not subtraction, an ancient campaign adage holds. Trump’s own polls show that he hasn’t learned that lesson. Or, at least, hasn’t learned how to put it into practice.