Tourism, agriculture businesses brace for Irma’s impact

After knocking down parts of the vital tourism industry in the Caribbean, Hurricane Irma is spinning toward Florida, another vacation haven.

Tourism accounts for 1.4 million jobs in the Sunshine State, where more than 112 million people visited last year and spent $109 billion. Resorts and hotels there could suffer instant destruction from Irma’s winds or lingering damage if vacationers stay away.

“We will still have our beaches after Irma, but some people who were planning to come to Florida will change those plans,” said Sean Snaith, an economics professor at the University of Central Florida. “They may postpone, or change destinations.”

In the Caribbean, at least 21 people were killed when Irma slammed into the islands as one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes ever. Heavy damage was reported on St. Martin, St. Barts and other famous beach destinations.

Roads and airports will need to be repaired or even rebuilt, and it’s uncertain whether that can be done in time for the winter high season on the hardest-hit islands. Wealthier islands with more private insurance will fare better, said Gabriel Torres, an analyst for Moody’s Investors Service who has studied the effect of storms in the Caribbean.

“It has an impact on tourism because some hotels will decide not to rebuild or take a long time to rebuild, and that’s lost revenue,” Torres said. “That can take years to recover.”

Torres said St. Martin, which is divided into Dutch Sint Maarten and French Saint-Martin, will benefit as their European patrons provide aid for rebuilding.

If there is any consolation, it may be that “the damage to tourism is going to be less than feared because a great many popular islands have been spared,” including Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao, said Arthur Frommer, the founder of Frommer’s travel guides.

Here is a snapshot of Irma’s likely effects on other key industries:

› Airlines: More than 4,600 flights in the storm’s path have been canceled, including flights this weekend in Florida, and the number is expected to soar, according to tracking service FlightAware.com.

› AUTOS: Irma won’t damage as many cars and trucks as Harvey did, but the toll

is still expected to be extensive, according to analysts from Cox Automotive, which publishes Kelley Blue Book and Autotrader.

› Insurance: The industry is in good financial shape because insurers haven’t had to pay out for mammoth losses such as back-to-back hurricanes in over a decade, analysts say. But they are wary of Irma’s predicted path, which would mean landfall in the densely populated area from Miami to Fort Lauderdale.

› Agriculture: Irma could be a devastating blow to a Florida citrus industry that already is reeling from a decade-long infestation of citrus greening disease, which leads to fewer and bitter-tasting fruit.

› Oil and gas: One-third or more of service stations were out of gas in several Florida cities including Miami, West Palm Beach, Fort Myers and Tampa, according to GasBuddy.