But what have we done lately?
If you’re following the advice provided in this column each week, last Saturday night’s sour finish — it was like the picks had too many Co-Colas watching Tennessee collapse late at Florida — gave us our first sub-.500 showing of the season.
The 2-3 mark left us 11-4 overall against the number. Entertaining for sure, but we need to be honest that we’re riding a three-game losing streak. May we have another Co-Cola or three?
Still, the only way for cowboys to ride is to get back in the saddle. Giddy-up.
San Diego State minus-3 over Air Force. San Diego State is a legit Big Six bowl contender, especially after upsetting Stanford last week. Yes, the letdown factor is real for the Aztecs and the game is at the Academy, but coach Rocky Long’s bunch is legit. Running back Rashaad Penny leads the nation in rushing and total yards per game, and this being a Mountain West Conference opener has more weight than the Aztecs’ two wins over Pac-12 foes.
South Alabama minus-3 over Idaho. Gang, there is a history of success picking against mid-tier programs that have to make cross-country trips. Now add in that the price is right, because South Alabama has played the tougher schedule — its two losses were to Ole Miss and Oklahoma State; Idaho’s were to UNLV and Western Michigan — and has better athletes. Yes, please. But with a three-point line, always buy the half to be safe.
Virginia Tech-Old Dominion over 52.5. Coach Justin Fuentes has Virginia Tech rolling. The Hokies dropped 64 on East Carolina last week, when North Carolina put 53 on the Monarchs, who may be missing as many as three preseason-projected defensive starters. Virginia Tech may put 53 on the board by itself.
Florida-Kentucky under 45. With suspensions for Florida’s playmakers and the need for Kentucky to be a little more conservative — the Gators have returned three interceptions for touchdowns this season — this screams a game that will go down to the final possession. Here’s betting each coach, looking at the conditions and the casts, would take 20 points right now and roll the dice.
Georgia minus-5.5 over Mississippi State. There are several other games on the board I studied, but I picked Georgia in the Bullie Bowl for a couple of reasons. One of the underrated angles when looking for entertainment is managing the moment. For Mississippi State’s collection of 18- to 23-year-olds, a week of hype with all the bells and whistles and backslaps that come with hammering LSU has to be unfamiliar and extremely hard to handle. I believe in Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen. He’s aces. But to be frank, last week was as much about LSU coach Ed Orgeron being Ed Orgeron as it was about Mullen proving his measure yet again. This just feels like the perfect spot for Georgia, and sometimes you have to trust feel.
Last week: 2-3 against the spread
(40 percent).
This season: 11-4 against the spread
(73.3 percent)
First down. Bandwagon bowls. There has never been more belief in Vanderbilt in my lifetime. Alabama coach Nick Saban said the Commodores should be ranked. Their defense leads the nation in most categories. Coach Derek Mason has gone from from talk of a hot seat in 2015 to “Can we keep him in Nashville?” Similarly, regarding Mississippi State, everyone is guffawing at how smart Mullen is, how Dak Prescott-y quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is and how talented its defensive front seven have been. Heck, national shows are asking if Mississippi State and Vandy are the second- and thirdbest teams in the Southeastern Conference. That’s the power of 3-0 starts with impressive home upsets over ranked foes. This week, with everyone buying all of the Mississippi State and Vandy stock they can get their hands on, we’ll know more after Alabama goes to Nashville and the battle of the Bulldogs at Georgia.
Second down. Texas A&M at Arkansas in the desperation bowl. Maybe this should have been fourth down, because this may be the last, best chance for Bret Bielema or Kevin Sumlin to curry any sort of favor with their fan bases. Bielema’s Hogs have always seemed to play harder than Sumlin’s Aggies, even if that has not always translated on the scoreboard in this series. Is it possible an A&M loss would mean Sumlin is canned next week?
Third down. Tennessee bounces back. Poor UMass. The Minutemen are about to walk into a hornet’s nest. Here’s betting on the following numbers, and yes, it’s a shame we can’t list these as part of our picks: John Kelly gets more than 20 carries, and a large chunk of them are before the half; Kelly gets the first carry on the Volunteers’ first play inside the UMass 10; there will be 10,000 to 15,000 empty seats; Tennessee backup quarterback Jarrett Guarantano will get more than 15 snaps. Everyone connected to the program — players, fans and especially coach Butch Jones — needs a feel-good Saturday.
Fourth down. Is this the year? The last time Kentucky beat Florida was 1986. As Times Free Press SEC ace David Paschall noted in Thursday’s paper, the Wildcats’ win came the day after “Hoosiers” debuted in theaters. Here are some other details from ’86: Chernobyl’s nuclear reactor had issues, the Iran-Contra stuff happened, Maverick said he had the need for speed in “Top Gun,” Geraldo Rivera opened Al Capone’s vault, Bobby Ewing emerged from his shower and the previous season of “Dallas” was deemed a dream, the stadium wave was born in a soccer match in Mexico, the first “Legend of Zelda” Nintendo game was sold, NBC had six of the top seven shows in the ratings and the Stephen King book “It” was released. Heck, Steve Spurrier had not yet been a head coach in a college game when the Wildcats last beat the Gators. Still, it was not a good year for Kentucky — rival Louisville won the NCAA men’s basketball title in ’86, after all. Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@ timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343.