Don’t ride with these Cowboys
For those following the advice in this column, last week was more like it. A strong showing — our only loss was the under for Tennessee at Kentucky — pushed us back to 10 games over .500 this college football season.
But there is no time to rest, and there are a slew of entertaining opportunities this week. All lines from VegasInsider.com as of Thursday morning. Oklahoma plus-3 over Oklahoma State.
Yes, this is a monster rivalry game. Yes, it will be in Stillwater, and that place will be nuts. But you can’t convince me Oklahoma State is better than Oklahoma, and as good as Cowboys quarterback Mason Rudolph is — and as good as he could be on Sundays at the next level — I’ll take Baker Mayfield every day of the week. The three points (and yes, buy the half) feel like a gift, friends. THE Ohio State minus-17 over Iowa. Iowa simply cannot keep up with THE Buckeyes, who have found another gear on offense. The most one-sided matchup in this one is the clear edge Ohio State has — a defensive front that consistently handcuffed Penn State all over the field in the second half last week. Miami plus-3 over Virginia Tech.
Call this one a hunch. Call it a desire for The U to be back in the mix. But know this: Miami has done nothing but win this season. Will the sand run out this week? Maybe. But cue the ESPN 30-for-30 voiceover: “What if I told you there was a Power Five unbeaten team that was barely in the top 10 and that team craved respect.” Also, and I think this is important: Virginia Tech is 7-1 but through two months has made all of two true road trips — to Boston College and East Carolina. And the only time the Hokies have faced a defensive front this athletic was in a 31-17 loss to Clemson. Memphis minus-12 over Tulsa. Yes, a weeknight road favorite — especially by double digits — can be scary, even if Halloween is in the rearview mirror. But let’s review: With Tulsa (2-7) struggling, tonight’s game will be muted somewhat. The Memphis offense has found its stride with former University of Tennessee quarterback Riley Ferguson. (Hey, the Tigers have a legit claim as the best football team in the state.) One common opponent of note is Connecticut, with both playing there: Memphis won 70-31 on Oct. 6; Tulsa lost 20-14 on Oct. 21. Now know this: Tulsa is playing on Friday for the 10th straight week. Less than two scores is a generous price. Southern California minus-7 over Arizona. Yes, Arizona is running roughshod over folks with a new quarterback, and this one will be a scorefest. (The total is in the mid-70s and could get to 80 before kickoff.) But know this: Southern Cal has more athletes in almost every spot and a quarterback who will be a bona fide NFL star. Arizona allowed more than 500 passing yards to Washington State’s backup last week — in the second half alone. The Trojans will put half a hundred on Arizona at home. Buy the half to avoid the back-door cover. Vanderbilt minus-9.5 over Western Kentucky. Yes, Vandy has struggled since starting 3-0. Yes, Western Kentucky is 5-3 — but at 1-6-1 against the spread, it is also vastly overvalued. Its five wins are against a Football Championship Subdivision team, bad Ball State, winless UTEP, awful UNC Charlotte and Old Dominion. Now know this: If Vandy holds any hope for a bowl, this is a must-win game.
Last week: 4-1 against the spread (80 percent)
This season: 29-19-1 against the spread (60.4 percent)
The first shoe has dropped in the Southeastern Conference football coaching carousel. Or maybe we should call it the SEC football coaching Russian roulette.
Florida has parted ways with Jim McElwain, and the inevitable question is who’s next? Who’s next at Florida, a perennial top-five job? The clear frontrunners are Central Florida’s Scott Frost and Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen.
But the question applies to the rest of the league, too. Is it Tennessee’s Butch Jones? Bret Bielema at Arkansas? What about Texas A&M’s Kevin Sumlin or Auburn’s Gus Malzahn, the duo who are starring in the “Coaches on the Hot Seat Bowl” when their teams play at noon Saturday in College Station, Texas?
All are on the table.
First down. How many will be behind Butch? A Saturday night homecoming game for the rudderless Volunteers against a a nondescript Southern Miss team. A fan base so fed up, it has taken to social media with the hashtag #EmptyNeyland to make sure the powers that be know the levels of disappointment with Jones. The controversy abounds in Knoxville so much, we could have a ton of -gates this side of Westgate. Concussion-gate. Injury-gate. Cliché-gate. Crew cut-gate. Currie-gate. Pick a gate, and there likely is some heavy Vols angst somewhere in the middle of it. Now know that Tennessee is less than a touchdown favorite and Southern Miss will be happy to cash that seven-figure check and reach bowl eligibility Saturday night. And the Golden Eagles don’t care if the House that the General built and Fulmer Renovated is half full or not.
Second down. Alabama-LSU in prime time. This is not the same TideTigers tussle we’ve become used to. You remember those, right? Tons of future NFL players across each sideline. Alabama has had 41 players drafted since April 2013; LSU has had 36 players drafted in the same time frame. Here’s the hard fact of the growing divide: Alabama is a 21-point favorite at home. So there’s that. And then there’s this: Amid all the fanfare of the first College Football Playoff rankings, here’s betting ol’ Nick Saban — aka the Dark Lord, who by the way turned 66 on Halloween — was smiling ear to ear as he was munching on Oatmeal Creme Pies upon hearing his team was No. 2. And here’s also betting he has reminded his team a time or two about that.
Third down. How does Florida respond? The Gators were completely housed by Georgia last week, something in the neighborhood of 208-2. Or maybe that was the rushing difference between Nick Chubb and the Florida offense. Who knows? It was hard to keep up with. Well, now the Gators don’t have McElwain or any chance of winning the SEC East. A bowl game now seems like a stretch, considering the 3-4 Gators must find three wins in their final four games to make sure of a postseason trip. (Now remember that the only things standing between the Gators and a 1-6 record to this point are a Hail Mary against hapless Butch Jones and Kentucky’s inexplicable “Hey, let’s not cover the wide receiver [twice]” defense that led to a one-point win in Lexington. Ouch-standing.) So, now in just their second true road game of the year, the Gators are underdogs as they head to Missouri to face the best SEC quarterback you don’t know much about. Mizzou gunslinger Drew Lock has thrown for 2,567 yards and 28 touchdowns in eight games. We’ll see if Florida’s players have quit or not.
Fourth down. Can Georgia handle the moment? In some ways this is a good spot for the Bulldogs, because a flat performance at home Saturday likely would not end in a defeat, because South Carolina simply cannot score enough to topple Georgia, which is No. 1 in the first CFP rankings. But consider this for the 18- to 23-year-olds in Kirby Smart’s program: They hammered Florida, which has had the best of the program recently; they are No. 1 in the eyes of the college football people who matter; they are hearing how great they are on campus, in class and everywhere else, and they could be getting friends from home asking for tickets to the national semifinal. It’s tough to handle that type of praise and still realize you actually have to go out there and work and grind.