Poll shows Tennesseans disapprove of tax plan

NASHVILLE — Tennesseans disapprove of the GOP-led congressional tax plan, fearing most benefits will flow to the wealthiest Americans, according to a new poll released this week.

The poll, conducted by Democratic pollster Hart Research Associates, found 37 percent of the 400 registered Tennessee voters polled support the proposal and 47 percent disapprove.

Only 57 percent polled were familiar with the plan, but of those respondents, 55 percent disapprove of the measure.

“By a 19-point margin, making sure that the wealthy and corporations pay their fair share in taxes is considered a higher priority than across-the-board tax cuts [58 percent to 39 percent],” according to the poll.

National messaging on the plan remains partisan and ever-evolving.

The House bill reduces the number of tax brackets, cuts corporate tax rates and increases the child tax credit. Supporters say the proposal will free up more money for businesses to use on wage increases or more generally put back into the economy.

This oft-criticized trickle-down economic theory is panned by those polled, according to the polling memo.

“Only 20 percent of Tennessee voters believe that the plan’s corporate tax cuts will be used to raise wages for employees, while 72 percent reject this claim,” the polling memo states.

Opponents blast the House GOP decision to do away with tax deductions for student loans or income taxes, a move they say will increase tax burdens above any additional credits in the bill.

All members of Tennessee’s Republican delegation in the House joined with their congressional GOP colleagues in helping to pass the measure out of the House earlier this month.

The bill and path for passage is different in the Senate. The measure includes many of the same deductions, but also attempts to do away with the individual mandate.

The mandate is the linchpin in the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. It’s the provision that requires everyone to have insurance, ensuring the healthy sign up and pay for those who are sick. Without the mandate, Obamacare supporters say premiums will skyrocket for the sickest Americans.

Republicans and other supporters of the Senate bill say Americans never should have been forced to buy insurance, and without the mandate individuals will have more freedom in what insurance they buy.

The poll takes as fact the plan will cause premiums to increase; when presented with this prospect, 77 percent of respondents said they were less likely to support the plan.

As may be expected, after pollsters told respondents some of the negative consequences opponents say will occur if the bill becomes law, more respondents opposed the measure.

U.S. Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., said he supports the Senate version of the bill but U.S. Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., hasn’t said how he’ll vote. The measure is almost guaranteed to change before any final Senate vote.

With a two-vote majority, Senate Republicans can’t afford to lose any support if they want to meet President Donald Trump’s desire to have a plan on his desk by the end of the year.

Hart Research Associates generally works with Democratic candidates and causes but has also done work with big business and media. It conducts the monthly NBC News and Wall Street Journal poll.

The left-leaning Institute on Taxes and Economic Policy and Americans for Tax Fairness paid for the poll.

The margin of error for this poll is plus or minus 5 percentage points. Forty percent of those polled identified as Republicans, 32 percent identified as Democratic and 23 percent identified as Independent.