U.S. bull market, 2nd longest since WWII, turns 9

The bull market turned 9 Friday, extending a run that began in the depths of the Great Recession.

On March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 hit a cycle low of 676.53, and has more than quadrupled since that date, according to Howard Silverblatt at S&P Global, helped by historically low interest rates and improving corporate profits.

The stock market has had several corrections since March 2009, which is when an index like the S&P 500 falls 10 percent or more from a recent high, most recently in February. But the stock market has not fallen 20 percent or more from a recent high, which is when a bull market becomes a “bear” market. The S&P 500 would have to fall roughly 600 points from its current level in order to enter a bear market.

If the current bull market lasts until August 21, it will be the longest bull market since World War II, exceeding the bull market that started October 1990 and lasted until March 2000. During that time the S&P 500 rose more than 400 percent. The third-longest bull market came in the post WWII boom years, between 1949 and 1956.

While there are several risks to this current bull market, including the possibility of higher inflation and a trade war caused by President Donald Trump’s tariffs on aluminum and steel, most investors believe the current market isn’t at risk of falling into a bear market any time soon. Companies are benefiting from the recent tax law passed by Congress and the overall U.S. economy is growing and unemployment is at record lows.

Investors got exactly what they wanted on the 9th anniversary of the Bull Market Friday from the employment report for Febuary: solid hiring, moderate wage growth and continued low unemployment. Investors sent stocks sharply higher, particularly their recent favorites, technology companies.

U.S. employers added 313,000 jobs in February, more than forecast, and wages didn’t rise as much as investors had feared. A month earlier, a jump in wages got investors worried about inflation and set off a stock market swoon, giving the benchmark S&P 500 index its first 10 percent decline in two years.

“I think the fears of wages getting out of control in this point in the cycle … were squashed,” said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer for Northern Trust Wealth Management.

Bond yields also moved solidly higher as investors anticipated that the solid jobs survey portends more steady growth in the U.S. economy.

The Nasdaq composite regained the last of its February losses and closed at an all-time high. The S&P 500 index climbed 47.60 points, or 1.7 percent, to 2,786.57. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 440.53 points, or 1.8 percent, to 25,335.74.

So far, it’s a happy occasion for the bulls.