WHERE’S THAT BETTER DEAL?
By reneging on the Iran nuclear deal, President Donald Trump has said, he will be able to get an even better deal, one that will also control Iran’s ballistic missiles and its regional influence.
Sound familiar? It should. This is the same kind of gesture toward a better, smarter deal that Trump made when he pulled the United States out of the Paris climate agreement, the same sort of empty promise he made in saying he would supply plans for Middle East peace and better, cheaper, more accessible health care. So far, again and again, he has shown himself to be adept at destroying agreements — an easy task for a president — and utterly lacking in the policy depth or strategic vision and patience to create new ones.
When it comes to the danger of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, there is no sign Iran or any of the other major powers in the existing and so far successful pact will simply fall in line with Trump’s notional new plan. More likely, his decision, announced Tuesday, will let Iran resume a robust nuclear program, sour relations with European allies, erode America’s credibility, lay conditions for wider war in the Middle East and make it harder to reach an agreement with North Korea on its nuclear program.
In other words, par for the course. This man who, apparently because of one book and a reality television show, has a reputation as a dealmaker despite a skein of bankruptcies and lawsuits, has been piling up quite a record of scuttled agreements that he suggests “never, ever should have been made” and broken promises for a “better deal.”
Consider the Paris agreement, approved by President Barack Obama in 2016. Trump labeled it an unfair “con job” and in June declared his intention to withdraw from it. Trump suggested he was open to renegotiating this voluntary agreement but has done nothing about it. Meanwhile, his administration chips away at environmental protections through deregulation as the nearly 200 countries that signed the deal remain committed to it.
Or take DACA, the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, also established by Obama. It provides temporary work permits and reprieves from deportation for about 800,000 immigrants brought to the United States illegally as children. Trump ended it but said he was open to fixing it. But he hasn’t, ordering instead a crackdown by immigration agents that has torn families apart and left millions of other people in limbo.
Similarly, the southern border wall, the centerpiece of his presidential campaign that was supposed to be paid for by Mexico, is more mirage than reality — and whatever parts are being built are being paid for by the United States.
One of his first moves in office was to withdraw from the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership, which he had called “a rape of our country.” Last month he raised the possibility of rejoining it but then stepped back again.
As for China, which Trump promised to browbeat into offering trade concessions, recent negotiations ended with few signs of progress toward avoiding a trade war.
The one agreement on which he forced new negotiations and seems to have scored modest success is the Free Trade Agreement with South Korea. Even so, the president has suggested he might delay finalizing the pact because it gives him a card to play, presumably with Seoul, while negotiating with North Korea over its nuclear program.
But no deal so stoked his disdain as the one that committed Iran to curtail its nuclear program in return for a lifting of sanctions, even though international inspectors along with American and Israeli intelligence and security officials have repeatedly judged that Iran is abiding by it.
It seems a counterproductive message as Trump has shifted from warmongering to diplomacy on North Korea and prepares to meet its leader, Kim Jong Un, to get him to abandon his nuclear arsenal of 20 to 60 weapons.
Why should North Korea now believe the United States, over the long haul, will honor a deal any president strikes?
The stakes with Iran are high; with North Korea they are higher. Will that be another deal too far for Trump?