World Cup shifts into next phase
MOSCOW — The thunder-clapping Icelanders have gone home, along with the Egyptians and Peruvians. Now comes the business end of the World Cup, a European- and South American-dominated club that rejects most new applicants as unwanted hoi polloi.
The tournament’s two weeks of group play are a crossroads of cultures, a mixture of multitudes filled with happiness and hope. Then comes the knockout stage, where soccer’s powers pump their pecs and the blue bloods almost always prevail.
Ten European nations have reached the round of 16 this year in Russia, matching the 1998 and 2006 World Cups for the most since 11 in 1990, the record since the current format began in 1986.
Four South American teams have advanced, plus Mexico and Japan. For the first time since 1982, no African team made it past the first round.
History is instructive about what’s likely to happen next: Since the 1986 tournament, Europe has earned 41 of 64 quarterfinal berths and South America has taken 16. Among the other regions, Africa and CONCACAF — which includes the United States — have three apiece and Asia one.
Winnowing to the inner sanctum becomes even more pronounced after that. In the same stretch, Europe has filled 23 of 32 semifinal spots and South America eight, with South Korea in 2002 at home becoming the only outsider to reach the final four.
At 20 previous World Cups, Europe has lifted the trophy 11 times and South America nine.
Germany’s departure was the biggest group-phase jolt this time. Projected by many as the first repeat winner since Brazil in 1962, Die Mannschaft became the fourth champion in five tournaments to exit early.
FIFA has favored the bottom of the bracket with far easier travel, with the Russia-Spain winner headed from Moscow to a quarterfinal in Sochi, then potentially a semifinal and the final in the capital. The Colombia-England winner in Moscow goes to a quarterfinal in Samara and then would be on track to finish in Moscow.
Here’s a look at the matchups for the round of 16, which starts today:
France vs. Argentina
Lionel Messi and Co. were on the verge of elimination before Marco Rojos’ 86th-minute goal lifted Argentina to a 2-1 win against Nigeria. With
an average age of 26, France is among the youngest teams, led by dynamic 19-year-old striker Kylian Mbappe. At 31, this likely is Messi’s last chance for the World Cup title he needs to match Diego Maradona in the minds of many Argentinians. While Argentina has struggled in Russia, France must awaken from a somnambulant groupstage finale against Denmark.
Uruguay vs. Portugal
Cristiano Ronaldo — like Messi, a five-time FIFA player of the year — has four goals in the tournament. Now he leads the reigning European champions against an opponent known foremost for the bite marks Luis Suarez left on Italian defender Giorgio Chiellini four years ago. Uruguay is the least populous nation still at the tournament.
Spain vs. Russia
World Cup hosts outside the soccer powers usually perform better than expected. Russia should have huge support at Luzhniki Stadium, making this closer than the 10th versus 70th matchup in the rankings. Andres Iniesta, who scored the goal that
won Spain’s first World Cup title in 2010, remains on a rebuilt roster that struggled defensively in the group stage.
Croatia vs. Denmark
This is Tottenham past versus Spurs present, with Luka Modric leading Croatia and Christian Eriksen sparking Denmark. Croatia was among the most impressive groupstage teams, beating Nigeria, Argentina and Iceland by a combined score of 7-1.
Brazil vs. Mexico
Mexico’s fans are hoping for the elusive “quinto partido” (fifth game), which would require El Tri to reach a World Cup quarterfinal for the first time since 1986 on home soil. This is Mexico’s best chance in years, with an attack led by Javier Hernandez and Carlos Vela. Center back Hector Moreno is suspended for yellow-card accumulation. Brazilian players are trying to atone for the 7-1 humiliation against Germany in the semifinals at home four years ago. Philippe Coutinho has become as important to the Selecao attack as Neymar.
Belgium vs. Japan
Belgium was among three teams to go 3-0 in group play, joining Croatia and Uruguay, and No. 61 Japan will be a heavy underdog against the third-ranked Red Devils. Star forward Romelu Lukaku started the World Cup with consecutive two-goal games but missed Belgium’s group-stage finale with an ankle injury. If Belgium advances, it would be in what appears to be the more difficult part of the bracket, lined up against Brazil or Mexico in the quarterfinals, then France, Argentina, Uruguay or Portugal in the semifinals.
Sweden vs. Switzerland
In its first World Cup in the post-Zlatan Ibrahimovic era, Sweden is looking to get past the round of 16 for the first time since finishing third in 1994. Swedish midfielder Sebastian Larsson is suspended, as are Swiss defenders Stephan Lichtsteiner and Fabian Schar. Switzerland is led by midfielders Xherdan Shaqiri and Granit Xhaka.
Colombia vs. England
England’s Harry Kane, whose five goals lead the list of scorers in Russia, heads a young team that finished group play without shutting out an opponent. It’s the first time that has happened in England’s World Cup history. Colombia, led by James Rodriguez and Radamel Falcao, advanced over Senegal on fair play (a tiebreaker based on fewer yellow cards) and is this year’s only team to reach the round of 16 after losing its opener. Rodriguez’s calf injury is a concern after it forced him out in the first half Thursday. By losing to Belgium, England faces what appears to be an easier path if it wins today: Sweden or Switzerland in the quarterfinals and Spain, Russia, Croatia or Denmark in the semifinals.