Big Ten shows risk of big games
The past two seasons, the Big Ten Conference champion was left out of the College Football Playoff, in part because it had lost early during the nonconference portion of its schedule.
Just two weeks into a new season, Michigan and Michigan State are facing the same possible predicament.
No. 25 Michigan State already has a loss after falling 16-13 at Arizona State last weekend, so if the Spartans want to be in the national title hunt, their margin for error is slim the rest of the way. The same is true for No. 19 Michigan, which dropped its opener at Notre Dame.
This week, the pressure is on No. 4 Ohio State (2-0), which faces a tough test against No. 15 TCU (2-0).
As much as fans and players look forward to marquee matchups in early September, such games present a risk for any program with national title aspirations.
“We definitely have had our share of tough games early,” Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh said. “But we just have a mindset of the schedule’s the schedule, and we go out and play them.”
The first point Harbaugh made when asked about this topic was that scheduling decisions are sometimes made well in advance. If a program is
weighing whether to agree to a game five years down the road, the playoff implications for that season are tough to figure.
Still, any game against a bigname opponent has the potential to be difficult. Ohio State lost at home last September to Oklahoma and quarterback Baker Mayfield, who went on to win the Heisman Trophy and lead the Sooners to the Big 12 Conference title. The Buckeyes were 11-2 after winning the Big Ten title game, but they were passed over for the four-team playoff in favor of one-loss Alabama, which won neither the Southeastern Conference nor the SEC West.
What’s the lesson? It’s hard to say.
If Ohio State had played an easier nonconference schedule and had only one loss, there’s still no guarantee the Buckeyes would have made the College Football Playoff. In 2014, the CFP’s debut season, a oneloss Baylor team was left out despite winning the Big 12, and the Bears may have been held back by an uninspiring nonleague schedule.
In four seasons of the CFP, no team with more than one loss has been selected. Ohio State just missed last year. So did Penn State’s 2016 team, which lost at Pittsburgh early before winning the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions were 11-2 when the CFP selections were made.
It is certainly possible to overcome an early loss. In 2014, Ohio State was on the ropes after a home loss to Virginia Tech in the second game of the season. The Buckeyes regrouped and ran the table in the Big Ten, making the CFP and then winning the national title.
There is no indication Big Ten teams are going to stop playing tough September clashes. There are still benefits. A rivalry game like Michigan-Notre Dame has enough tradition that fans are probably willing to accept the risk of an early loss. On the other hand, the Penn State-Pitt rivalry, which dates to the 1890s, is going on hiatus after next season.
Playing marquee opponents can help a program’s exposure. Michigan State had a home-andhome series with Oregon in 2014 and 2015, and there’s no telling how much the trip out West helped the Spartans in recruiting. Michigan State lost in 2014 to future Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Marcus Mariota and the Ducks in a matchup of top-10 teams, but the Spartans were still in the hunt for the CFP until their Big Ten title bid fell short.
“We were playing pretty well and probably would have made the playoffs had we beaten Ohio State that year. We didn’t,” Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio said. “We lost two. I think two is the magic number probably for most people, not one.”