Wildcats continue to climb in West
Stay the course: Northwestern’s surprisingly strong start to the season gained major legitimacy with a stifling 17-7 victory over Wisconsin last Saturday, when the Wildcats forced five turnovers to knock off the favored Badgers. The win put Northwestern in the driver’s seat for the Big Ten West Division title and was the program’s first over a ranked team since 2018; it went 0-5 against top-25 opponents in a 3-9 season in 2019. Find an offense: Northwestern stands 13th in the Big Ten and 106th nationally with 336.4 yards per game. Its ranking in scoring average is slightly better, 10th in the league and 84th nationally. The Wildcats can get away with those types of figures against similarly talented teams, but it’s an open question whether they have the horses to compete in a shootout against the likes of Ohio State in the Big Ten championship or another top team on a national level.
Keys for Michigan State
Find something to play for. Michigan State is having a tough go of it in Mel Tucker’s first season as coach. The only highlight so far was a 27-24 upset victory over “big brother” Michigan in week 2, when the Spartans played with a sharpness and focus they had not displayed in an opening loss to Rutgers nor have harnessed since.
Part of the issue, clearly, is a lack of offensive identity. MSU scored 27 points in each of its first two games, then were limited to one total touchdown the next two weeks in losses to Iowa (49-7) and Indiana (24-0). The Spartans have changed quarterbacks, from Rocky Lombardi to Payton Thorne, without success. Maybe they found something in their unanticipated off week.
Force turnovers: Entering this week, Michigan State ranks No. 125 among 127 FBS teams in turnover margin, having committed 14 turnovers (six fumbles, eight interceptions) in four games while forcing only five. Perhaps not surprisingly, the only game MSU won was the one in which it was even in turnover margin.
Prediction
Northwestern 27, Michigan State 14: Having dispatched Wisconsin and Iowa, the Big Ten West’s preseason power couple, Northwestern now faces a downhill run of Michigan State, Minnesota and Illinois to the conference title game. The Wildcats are no offensive juggernaut, but their smothering defense led by linebackers Blake Gallagher and Paddy Fisher should have more than enough to quell a struggling Spartans attack.