KEEPING GOP COALITION TOGETHER WON’T BE EASY
Republicans looking to move on from Donald Trump see their party’s wins in Democratic-leaning states last week as a sign they can do so relatively easily. A new poll from the Pew Research Center, however, shows creating that new majority coalition will be harder than many in the party think.
The Pew poll breaks down the two parties’ voters into smaller, constituent factions. This type of survey offers a nuanced, detailed view of each party’s opportunities and pitfalls.
The typology finds that GOP voters are divided into four primary groups. Faith and Flag Conservatives, about a quarter of GOP voters, are the party’s conservative, religious bedrock. They are staunchly Christian, believe in small government and individual liberty and view America as the greatest of all nations. Committed Conservatives, about a sixth of the party, are the party’s pro-business wing. They are the most highly educated and well-to-do group. They agree with Faith and Flag Conservatives on a host of issues but tend to be more moderate on social issues and less driven by religious belief and issues. Most Republicans in Congress probably fall into one of these two groups.
The GOP’s challenge, however, is that more than half of its voters belong to the groups underrepresented in the party’s elite circles. Almost a fifth of Republican voters belong to the Ambivalent Right. This group is younger and less white than the other groups and tends to be more moderate on immigration and social issues. This is the more libertarian-leaning group of Republicans; it has purchase on college campuses and in think tanks but few advocates on Capitol Hill.
The most underrepresented group is also tied for the largest: the Populist Right. These voters, as numerous as Faith and Flag Conservatives, are the least educated and the most economically downscale of the four. They are fiercely nationalistic and opposed to immigration but are also highly critical of the nation’s economic system.
Eighty-seven percent say the country’s economic system unfairly favors powerful interests, a view shared by all Democratic-leaning groups but well out of line with the GOP consensus. Fifty-six percent want to raise taxes on households making more than $400,000 a year and corporations; majorities of every other GOP-leaning group oppose these ideas. The Populist Right also splits with the GOP over the influence of large corporations and financial institutions, saying they have a negative effect on the way things are going in the country.
Current GOP economic policy, which focuses on traditional themes such as tax cuts for the rich and corporations, will strike these voters as wrongheaded and might unnecessarily drive them out of the coalition.
This would be shortsighted, especially because the Populist Right shares many economic views with the typology’s swing group, the Stressed Sideliners. These voters split evenly between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in 2020, and their Republican-leaning members make up about a sixth of the total GOP electorate. They agree with the Populist Right that the economic system unfairly favors the powerful (83%), and a whopping 65% want to raise taxes on households making more than $400,000 a year.
Last week’s victories suggest that opposition to President Joe Biden can unite these groups in the short term. But history shows that coalitions that win midterm elections do not always re-form in the subsequent presidential contest. Massive GOP midterm wins in 1994 and 2010 were followed by presidential defeats in 1996 and 2012, as Republicans failed to strike positive themes that allowed them to keep defectors on the left whose disappointment with Democratic Party rule fueled midterm victories. Both Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama pivoted to defending a robust government safety net from purported GOP predations, winning back blue-collar voters who want something between a big-government left and an anti-government right.
The Pew typology shows this type of pivot remains a potent threat to Republican unity and victory. Wise party leaders would heed this warning and prepare for the future.