Kazakhstan adds uncertainty to talks with Russia on Ukraine
WASHINGTON — Russia’s decision to send paratroopers into Kazakhstan, where a crackdown on violent anti-government protests has left dozens dead, injects additional uncertainty into upcoming talks over a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The question is whether the unrest in Kazakhstan has changed the calculations of Russian President Vladimir Putin as he weighs his options in Ukraine. Some say Putin may not want to engage in two conflicts at the same time, while others say Russia has the military capacity to do both and he will decide separately on whether to attack Ukraine. The instability in Kazakhstan may even add new urgency to Putin’s desire to shore up Russia’s power in the region.
Both Kazakhstan and Ukraine are former Soviet republics that Putin has sought to keep under Moscow’s influence, but so far with vastly different results. Ukraine, an aspiring democracy that has turned decisively toward the West, has been locked in deadly conflict with Russia since Putin seized Crimea in 2014 and backed an insurgency in the eastern Donbas region. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, has been ruled in the three decades since the Soviet collapse by autocrats who have maintained close security and political ties with Russia.
Russian troops entered Kazakhstan on Thursday after Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev invoked the help of a Russia-led military alliance. The following day, with Russian troops helping to restore control over the airport and guarding government buildings, he ordered his forces to shoot to kill any protesters who don’t surrender.
That led to Washington and Moscow exchanging new barbs on the eve of a week of meetings over Ukraine that begins with talks between senior U.S. and Russian officials in Geneva on Monday.
Asked about Kazakhstan and Ukraine on Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he would not “conflate these situations.”
“There are very particular drivers of what’s happening in Kazakhstan right now, as I said, that go to economic and political matters,” Blinken said. “What’s happening in there is different from what’s happening on Ukraine’s borders.
“Having said that, I think one lesson of recent history is that once Russians are in your house, it’s sometimes very difficult to get them to leave,” he added.
The Russian Foreign Ministry fired back with a statement that referenced past U.S. wars and interventions in other countries. “If Antony Blinken is so into history lessons, here’s one that comes to mind: When Americans are in your house, it can be difficult to stay alive, not being robbed or raped,” the statement said.
The U.S. has for weeks warned that Putin has stationed troops near Ukraine with the possible intent to stage a new invasion. Putin is not believed to have moved significantly more troops toward Ukraine in the last several weeks, according to two people familiar with the latest assessments who were not authorized to speak publicly. But at least 100,000 Russian troops remain in positions where they could possibly strike parts of Ukraine, the people said.
In response, Washington and Kyiv have ramped up their cooperation on intelligence and security matters.