If Roe v. Wade is overturned, how soon could abortion become illegal across the South?

The U.S. Supreme Court will soon make a final decision on a Mississippi case that will determine the future of Roe v. Wade, the 1973 landmark decision that guaranteed the constitutional right to abortion.

Should that ruling be weakened or overturned, states will have the right to decide whether abortion services should remain legal.

While abortion remains legal in all 50 states, more than half of those states have passed laws over the years that could outlaw abortion or severely reduce access within a short time if Roe is overturned. Five states in the South have passed laws called trigger bans that would outlaw most abortions, with some exceptions such as extreme medical emergencies, shortly following a ruling overturning Roe. Though those laws are on the books, they are written to only be enacted if Roe is overturned.

Other states also have abortion bans from prior to 1973 when abortion was legalized in the U.S. that were never enforced but remain on the books. These laws are called “pre-Roe” bans, and some states may try to enforce them soon after the Supreme Court decision is issued, according to the Center for Reproductive Rights.

We take a look at how a ruling to overturn Roe would likely play out in Southern states and the time frame for when these bans would go into effect.

The information was collected from the Guttmacher Institute, the Center for Reproductive Rights and the work of USA TODAY Network reporters on the ground in states across the southeast.

ALABAMA

Although Alabama does not have a trigger ban in place, it’s likely the state would move quickly to reinstate pre-Roe bans on the procedure. The state’s constitution was amended by a referendum in 2018 to say residents have no right to abortion.

Gov. Kay Ivey signed a 2019 law that banned abortion in all cases except extreme medical

emergencies and criminalized other forms of the procedure. The law has been tied up in the courts but could be revived if Roe is overturned. It would likely supersede a similar 1951 law still on the books.

ARKANSAS

In 2019, the state enacted a trigger law that would take effect as soon as the state attorney general certifies that the U.S. Supreme Court “overrules, in whole or in part, the central holding of Roe v. Wade.” Last year, the state also passed a near-total ban on abortion, making an exception only in cases of medical emergencies endangering the life of the mother. The state’s pre-Roe ban on abortions has been blocked by the courts since 1980.

FLORIDA

Florida’s pre-Roe bans were repealed in 1972.

The state’s constitution includes protections for abortion as part of the state’s fundamental right to privacy. But lawmakers have approved increasingly strict abortion regulations, including a 15-week ban earlier this year set to go into effect July 1. The ban was challenged in state court in June. Due to this recent ban, Florida was among four states considered likely to ban abortion should Roe be overturned or weakened, according to an analysis from the Guttmacher Institute.

GEORGIA

The state’s legislature repealed the pre-Roe abortion ban in 1973, and the state does not have a trigger ban in place.

In 2019, Georgia lawmakers passed a six-week ban on abortion that never took effect. The state could attempt to enforce the sixweek ban, also known as the “fetal heartbeat” law, should Roe be overturned. Abortion rights advocates argue the six-week time frame is long before most women even know they’re pregnant.

LOUISIANA

Louisiana passed a trigger law in 2006 that would immediately go into effect if the U.S. Supreme Court reverses Roe, giving the state the authority to prohibit abortion. In 2020, voters approved a constitutional amendment banning any right to abortion or funding for abortions in the state.

MISSISSIPPI

The state’s 2007 trigger ban on abortions would take effect 10 days after the state attorney general certifies the decision from the U.S. Supreme Court to overrule Roe. The state also passed a six-week ban on abortions in 2019 that has never been enforced, as well as a preRoe ban on abortions that remains on the books.

NORTH CAROLINA

North Carolina is the Southern state least likely to outlaw abortion even if Roe is weakened or overturned.

The state’s pre-Roe ban is blocked by the courts, and there is no trigger law on the books. The governor is unlikely to sign a bill banning abortion into law, and opponents would not be expected to have the votes to immediately push through any new legislation.

North Carolina does have a 1973 20-week ban on the books that was modified in 2015 but has never been enforced and was blocked by a recent 4th Circuit Court of Appeals ruling.

If Roe is overturned, it’s likely the nearest provider for over 11 million women ages 15 to 49 would be in North Carolina. That’s up from 230,000 women right now, estimates the Guttmacher Institute.

SOUTH CAROLINA

South Carolina does not have a trigger ban. The state repealed its pre-Roe bans in 1974.

But the temporarily-blocked “South Carolina Fetal Heartbeat and Protection from Abortion Act,” which would ban most abortions after six weeks of gestation, could go into effect after a reversal of Roe.

TENNESSEE

Tennessee passed a trigger ban in 2019. The law would require the state attorney general to notify the Tennessee Code Commission of a ruling overturning Roe. Then, within 30 days of that notice, the state would have an abortion ban in place.

Voters amended Tennessee’s state constitution in 2014 to remove access to abortion as a fundamental right in the state.

Overturning Roe could also pull the foundation out of a 2020 federal injunction blocking the implementation of a suite of laws from that year enacting some of the nation’s most restrictive abortion regulations. If the injunction is invalidated, it could create a de facto ban even before the trigger ban is activated. Some of the 2020 laws include a six-week ban on abortion, a law requiring abortion clinics to post in waiting rooms medically questionable information about being able to reverse a medication abortion, and a law prohibiting abortions if the doctor knows the patient is seeking the procedure due to the fetus’ sex, race or a Down syndrome diagnosis.

Tennessee repealed its pre-Roe ban in 1973.

TEXAS

The state’s trigger ban on abortion is set to take effect 30 days after the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe either entirely or in part. Texas has been able to enforce its six-week ban on abortion since September. The law allows people to sue any individual or organization that assists an individual in getting an abortion.

HOW WILL ABORTION BANS INCREASE TRAVEL DISTANCES?

In total, 26 states across the U.S. are either certain to or will likely move to ban abortion should the court decide to overturn or weaken Roe v. Wade, according to an analysis from the Guttmacher Institute.

These are states that already have trigger bans, pre-Roe abortion bans or other types of restrictions, such as six-week bans that have been approved but are written to not be enacted until after Roe is overturned.

Based on which states have these types of laws in place, travel distances for patients seeking abortion services are expected to increase substantially. The Guttmacher Institute did an analysis of how one-way driving distances would increase based on whether states decide to entirely ban abortion.

The average one-way driving distance to the nearest state where abortion would likely remain legal under a total ban:

› Alabama 352 miles (Illinois or North Carolina would be the nearest states).

› Arkansas 328 miles (Illinois or Kansas).

› Florida 575 miles (North Carolina).

› Louisiana 666 miles (Illinois, North Carolina, Kansas).

› Mississippi 495 miles (North Carolina, Illinois).

› South Carolina 88 miles (North Carolina).

› Tennessee 275 miles (Illinois, North Carolina).

› Texas 542 miles (Kansas, New Mexico).