WARS, AND RUMORS OF WARS

Does the war in Ukraine — aka Putin’s War — mean a war between Red China and the United States is more likely, or less? The commentariat has differing opinions, but something tells us that a war between the world’s top two economies and industrial outputs would be a disaster any way it comes along. So we must do everything on these shores to keep it from happening.

Speaking of industrial outputs, did you know that mainland China is now the world’s top country when it comes to industrial output? According to the Brookings Institution, Red China (not to be confused with free China on Taiwan) has surpassed the United States.

We note this from The Washington Post, in an opinion piece by Gabriel Scheinmann, executive director of the Alexander Hamilton Society: “A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that it will take five years to replenish the supply of Javelin missiles we provided Ukraine. Some weapons systems that we’ve provided, such as Stingers and M-777 howitzers, are not in production at all. The Biden administration is supposedly not providing much-needed ATACMS to Ukraine partly out of fear that the United States might not have enough in reserve for its own readiness.

“There is a nearly $19 billion and growing backlog of approved but undelivered arms to Taiwan, just as a U.S. Air Force general predicts war with China could come in 2025. In an age of military resource scarcity, choosing to deal Russia a heavy blow, critics lament, is a luxury that is making a Chinese victory more likely.”

But you can’t tell this story without talking about the advantages of a free system in a free country.

This week, the ChiComs buzzed Taiwan again with warplanes. The Associated Press reports that President Xi Jinping “has instructed his country’s military to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan.”

But what are the lessons that Beijing’s leaders are learning from their reddish cousins in Moscow as the fighting rages in Ukraine?

Maybe there’s this: Who knew that the Red Army in Russia was in such rot? Well, a few suspected it, including Americans who visited Russian training during the thaws that came after the Cold War.

Russian officers were said to be bragging about allowing their troops to fire live rounds from their tanks once a year — a boast that dropped jaws among American officers. On bases and forts all around the globe, American troops fire live rounds in practice almost weekly.

But proof of the Red Army’s unreadiness came in the first few weeks of the Ukraine invasion. When Russia didn’t take Kyiv immediately, and in fact were driven back toward their own soil like scalded dogs, the world took notice. How were the Russians so unprepared? How was the officers’ corps so inept? How was the professional non-commissioned officers’ corps so invisible?

Here’s one theory, besides the plain fact that the Ukrainians were more motivated: Western equipment and personnel and ability is superior because free countries find out about their own weaknesses. And it becomes public. And then it’s corrected.

When a weapons system eats billions, then fails, the American press tells Americans about it. How about that F-35, eh? For a low-cost, highspeed, low-drag fighter theory, how does $100 million for each plane sound? The F-16 is still a better deal. We wonder how many folks in the Pentagon were transferred after the F-35 one blew up on the drawing table?

If the Russian military complex ever had an F-35 kind of disaster, would anybody there tell Vlad the Impaler? Or would they do the smart thing, and keep their mouths shut and heads down, and not worry about the mistake until it was tried in real combat?

The Red Chinese might see what’s happening to Russians and think twice about what all they’ve got planned for this invasion of Taiwan. Or at least the Chinese military might think about that.

Surely nobody would be brave enough to mention it to Comrade Xi.