Polls have value, even when they are wrong
An ABC News/Washington Post poll last month generated outrage among Democrats. The headline on the story, “Trump edges out Biden 51-42 in headto-head match-up: POLL,” appeared designed to attract clicks rather than accurately portray where the race was on that day — or where it was headed.
Below the headline, the news organizations’ analysis of the poll results was far more nuanced, capturing the challenges confronting President Joe Biden in his bid for re-election and acknowledging the poll results may be an outlier.
Pollsters are always interested in horse race numbers, which provide a simple comparison of where the candidates stand if voters had to cast their ballots on the day the poll was conducted. But we are much more interested in what is happening beneath the surface.
Let me explain.
DELVING DEEPER
Poll results are divided into a number of elements.
Cross tabulations provide comparisons across subgroups. They tell us how well candidates are faring with key voting constituencies, such as suburban women, racial and ethnic minorities, and the white working class.
Biden, for example, is faring poorly among nonwhite working-class voters, relative to previous Democratic presidential candidates and even his 2020 presidential campaign, raising concerns about his prospects for re-election.
Pollsters also like poll questions that gauge voters’ perceptions of a candidate’s leadership qualities, their likability and voters’ most pressing issues. These concerns help to explain who appears to be winning — or losing — the election. Here I have in mind questions like: Is the candidate perceived as a strong leader? Do voters believe the candidate cares about people like them? And even more simply, do voters like the candidate? Is this someone they would want to have a beer with?
Fair or not, the polls tell us that Biden’s age is a very real concern. Should he win re-election, Biden would be 82 at the time of his inauguration,