Tennessee on track for another US House seat in ’32

Tennessee’s population swelled to 7.1 million people in 2023, the latest figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau show, putting the state on track to snag a 10th U.S. House of Representatives seat during the next redistricting cycle eight years from now.

Tennessee’s population is around 215,000 higher than the 2020 census count. Most of the population increase has occurred in Middle Tennessee, in the counties surrounding

Nashville. But Knoxville and the counties around it have also seen an uptick in people.

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts its population counting for congressional districts every 10 years, with the most recent one taking place in 2020. The 2023 population count, released earlier this month, is based on census bureau’s American Community Survey.

The U.S. Constitution requires the Census Bureau to count every person in the country by hand every 10 years. But the method is often not the most accurate way to determine the country’s populations because many people get counted twice or some are missed entirely. The next count will happen in 2030, affecting the 2032 U.S. House elections.

During the 2020 census, the American Redistricting project found that by using population surveys — which are considered more accurate — the bureau undercounted Tennessee’s population by potentially up to 5%, meaning the state was on the bubble of being able to add another congressional seat last time around.

Tennessee’s post-2020 census redistricting process was controversial as state Republicans broke up the U.S. House seat in Nashville, held by Democrat Jim Cooper at the time, and split the state’s capital city across three districts so the GOP could flip control of it.

An added seat in the U.S. House would give Democrats a shot at another federal office, and civil rights protections could protect it from partisan gerrymandering.

Tennessee’s non-white population of between 16-19% is low enough that only one congressional district has to be drawn as a majority-minority, but a second one changes the dynamic, similar to a situation in Alabama last year.

U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen of Memphis is currently the only Democrat in Tennessee’s federal delegation.

Tennessee hasn’t had more than nine House seats in more than 80 years. After the Civil War, Tennessee had 10 congressional districts before losing one during the 1930 redistricting process, regaining it in 1940 and losing it again in 1950.