BEARLY HANGING ON
During the bye, the Sun- Times’ Patrick Finley, Jason Lieser and Mark Potash answer the biggest questions the team will face the rest of the season
Should the Bears start Nick Foles or Mitch Trubisky against the Packers?
FINLEY: Are you sure there’s not a third choice? Assuming both quarterbacks are healthy, the Bears need to go back to Trubisky, if for no other reason than this:
When Trubisky runs for his life behind a bad offensive line, at least he has a chance to escape.
LIESER: It’s time to go back to Trubisky — not because he’s better, but because he’s more versatile. His running ability gives the Bears a valuable option to work around their struggling offensive line and pitiful running game. In 2018, his best season, Trubisky ran 68 times for 421 yards. If he can give the Bears 30 to 40 yards rushing per game, it would make a big difference for the worst ground game in the NFL.
POTASH: Trubisky, if he’s healthy. The Foles experiment has run its course. Though he faced tougher defenses early after becoming the starter, he was worse than ever against a 29th- ranked Vikings defense ( 30th in passing). Trubisky won’t be a savior, but his mobility increases in value with protection breaking down.
Will offensive coordinator Bill Lazor call plays for the rest of the season?
PF: Yes. Abdicating the playcaller role was one of the toughest choices of Matt Nagy’s professional life — and one of his finest moments as the Bears’ coach. It was an admission that he rather would give up his self- identity than keep doing something that doesn’t work. Snatching the reins back would undo any goodwill he gained, and that might prove important when chairman George McCaskey evaluates his future at the end of the season.
JL: Yes, but Nagy will return to the role next season. It would be too flaky for Nagy to take back play- calling in the final six games after publicly giving the duty to Lazor. He said Monday he will give Lazor at least the game against the Packers, giving him the full benefit of the bye week. Ultimately, however, it won’t matter much unless Lazor instantly can fix the Bears’ problems on the offensive line and at quarterback.
MP: Does it matter? Maybe Lazor needs time to get into a groove, but he’s still calling plays that have yet to work consistently this season. Assuming there’s gradual improvement as the Bears’ schedule eases after their game against the Packers, Lazor figures to keep the job through the end of the season.
When will the Bears’ losing streak end?
PF: At home against the Lions in two weeks.
JL: They way they’ve looked lately, there’s a chance it could last until Week 16 at the Jaguars. It’s hard to see any game as an automatic victory for the Bears right now, but maybe they’ll slide past the Lions again after the game against the Packers.
MP: The Bears already have burned through one firewall by losing to the Vikings at home, but the Lions at Soldier Field is even more asbestos- reinforced, especially if Trubisky is at quarterback and Lions coach Matt Patricia continues playing to Trubisky’s strength with man- toman defense. The Bears are 5- 0 against the Lions under Nagy, averaging 25.6 points. If they lose that game, the season could go wildly off the rails.
Besides the quarterback, the Bears’ biggest problem is:
PF: After six games last season, Nagy told us he wasn’t an idiot and knew his team needed to run the ball better. The Bears finished the season with 3.69 yards per carry, the fourth- worst in the league. Their 3.6 this season is the second- worst. The Bears identified a problem long ago and couldn’t fix it. That’s damning of everyone involved.
JL: There’s no plan to fix the offense. There are very few players on offense the Bears should want to retain, so a full rebuild is necessary. But they’re locked into several players, including Foles, tight end Jimmy Graham and left tackle Charles Leno, because of illadvised contracts. They don’t have enough draft capital or salary- cap space to revamp the offense fully going into 2021.
MP: The offensive line, which has regressed since being deceptively passable in the 2018 playoff season and must be rebuilt in 2021. That will be a difficult trick, with multiple first- roundcaliber upgrades needed in the same year you’re looking for a quarterback. Cody Whitehair and James Daniels are foundation pieces, and Alex Bars shows promise at guard. But every tackle spot — left, right and swing — is open for upgrade.
Under what circumstance would general manager Ryan Pace and Nagy keep their jobs in 2021?
PF: Either win or lose pretty. That means making the offense effective — and fun — for the first time since 2018, then selling their bosses on it taking off next season with a different quarterback. Also, beat the Packers — maybe twice. Those games are an important measuring stick for the McCaskeys — and for Bears fans everywhere.
JL: The Bears are overdue for a change at GM, so there’s almost no outcome that should save Pace’s job. That move would’ve been justified a year ago. He has done tremendous work on defense, but he has more than offset that with terrible decisions on offense. With so much to correct offensively, including the need for a new quarterback, there’s no way that job can be left in Pace’s hands. Nagy has shown promise and eventually might be a great coach, but it’s bad business to force a new GM to keep the incumbent coach. If Nagy can extract a winning season from this flawed roster, he would deserve to stay, but he’s probably out the door if Pace is.
MP: With the relatively quick or unexpected trigger at Halas Hall in the last 10 years — the firings of Jerry Angelo, Phil Emery and Marc Trestman, in particular — change can happen with anything less than a playoff berth. There are still six games to go, but a second consecutive season of regression on offense tilts the ledger against Pace and Nagy.
This Bears player deserves a Pro Bowl nod:
PF: Through 10 weeks, inside linebacker Roquan Smith leads the NFL with 15 tackles for loss, 96 tackles and 70 solo tackles. But that’s not as impressive as Allen Robinson ranking second in targets and eighth in receiving yards while playing with two quarterbacks under two playcallers in a dysfunctional offense.
JL: Cornerback Kyle Fuller. Defensive backs usually don’t get much attention unless they pile up interceptions — and Fuller has only one — but he has been tremendous. Opposing quarterbacks have completed only 46.6% of their passes against him, and Fuller has allowed a 61.3 passer rating. He also has eight pass breakups and a forced fumble.
MP: Smith is picking up steam in the second half ( coinciding with fellow inside linebacker Danny Trevathan’s resurgence from an early- season slump) and realizing the high expectations of a breakout season. He is almost literally getting better every game.
The Bears will finish the season with this record:
PF: 8- 8. They have the NFL’s ninth- easiest strength of schedule the rest of the way. The four teams they’ll play not named the Packers are a combined 11- 25.
JL: They’ll go 8- 8 for the second consecutive season. And that’s a terrible disappointment after a
5- 1 start that gave them an 83% chance of making the playoffs, based on historical data. That will leave Nagy at 28- 20, which would leave him with a winning percentage (. 583) barely above Lovie Smith’s in Bears history.
MP: 8- 8. As bad as the Bears have looked during their fourgame losing streak, the schedule eases up after the game against the Packers, and they will have a good chance to beat the Lions and Texans at home and the Jaguars on the road. Whether they have a playoff shot or not, the season finale against the Packers at Soldier Field might be a big one for Nagy, who hasn’t finished with a losing record as the Bears’ coach.