DFS: Where Las Vegas can help us when setting our lineup
Ask most DFS players where they begin their week of research and the answer is uniform: Las Vegas.
There’s a reason Vegas sports books continue to thrive and profit. They’re good at forecasting the over/ unders, the favorites, the underdogs and the point spreads.
So when you see a game with a 50- point over/ under total, it’s a good idea to roster a multitude of players from that game. If you see a game with a 40- point over/ under total, it’s usually a good idea to stay away from most players in those games. After all, fewer actual points = less potential for fantasy points.
It seems simple, and there are plenty of DFS players who follow Vegas lines and choose their rosters as such. Some players go as deep as the individual player propositions put out on Sunday mornings by the sports books.
There’s a school of thought that Vegas is overvalued in the DFS world, that we put too much stock into it, and just go for the 50- point games when a game with a 47- point over/ under could be just as good. Fantasy Labs co- founder Jonathan Bales addressed that point in a PFW fantasy football podcast a month ago, and it’s hard to disagree with him.
But line movement is another matter, and that is something we should pay attention to for big swings. And a perfect example occurred this past weekend.
If you listened to Wednesday’s PFW game- bygame fantasy football podcast, you know I was all over the Arizona Cardinals against the Buffalo Bills. I thought it was a potential chance to be sneaky in DFS tournaments as well, considering the Bills were coming off the mini- bye of a Thursday night game, and it was a west coast team traveling to the east coast for the early start, a spot which traditionally hurts west coast teams.
When I said all of that, the Cardinals were sixpoint favorites, a nice sweet spot where plenty of points are expected but it’s not such a blowout that you risk offensive studs being benched.
By Saturday, the Cardinals were down to threepoint favorites, despite multiple reports saying that as much as 80 percent of the bets taken were on the Cardinals to cover. Quite simply, it was textbook reverse line movement, where the line moves in the opposite direction of the public betting. In other words, some sharp Vegas gamblers who know way more than you or I were betting heavily on the Bills and the six points. Seeing this, I didn’t end up with one Cardinal on my roster this past week.
The result? Bills 33, Cardinals 18. The only fantasy player worth rostering from the Cardinals was matchup ( and apparently Vegas) proof David Johnson, who scored twice. Carson Palmer had four interceptions and no touchdown passes.
Vegas knows. And if it doesn’t, it learns quick and acts even quicker. Don’t forget to take a second look at the lines before you hit submit on Sunday.