WHO HAS EDGE?
Bears rushing offense vs Packers run defense
Before Ezekiel Elliott came to town, the Packers had a historic start to the season defending the run, allowing 171 rushing yards total in their first four games and a paltry 1.99 yards per carry. Elliott flipped that on a dime, though, with his monster game last week. It doesn’t mean Green Bay doesn’t have a formidable front, but Elliott was significantly better than the backs they faced in the first month of the season. What has worked is the pairing of Jake Ryan and Blake Martinez at inside linebacker, a big position question mark in the offseason. Ryan has four tackles behind the line of scrimmage. Mike Daniels, Letroy Guion, Mike Pennel and first- rounder Kenny Clark help form a stout D- line that faces a Bears rushing attack that stalled against the Jaguars. Jordan Howard managed only 2.3 yards per carry against a stacked box coming off his backto- back 100- yard games. Ka’Deem Carey had more success, but the Bears weren’t effective rushing the football. This is a strength vs. strength situation in the trenches, with Kyle Long and Josh Sitton ( if his ankle is healthy) going against the Packers’ front seven that has stopped every runner, except Elliott. Howard has been good, but he’s not Elliott. EDGE PACKERS
Bears passing offense vs Packers pass defense
The numbers aren’t great for Dom Capers’ pass defense, which is allowing opposing quarterbacks a rating of 101.7, having given up 10 touchdowns while picking off only three passes. The 16 sacks, though,
are tied for sixth in the league, sparked by Nick Perry’s 4.5 and Clay Matthews’ three. The Bears have allowed four sacks on Brian Hoyer’s 189 dropbacks, an astounding rate, but the Packers’ edge rushers will test Charles Leno and Bobby Massie. Capers will mix things up and he has a deep secondary, when healthy, including Ha Ha Clinton- Dix, Morgan Burnett, Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins. However, with Rollins ( groin) inactive in Week 6 and Randall leaving before intermission with a groin injury, the cornerback depth was exposed. Alshon Jeffery will have his chances, but can Hoyer get him the ball, especially in the red zone? The passing game has been fine between the 20s, but that’s it. If we’re to judge this matchup by how efficient the Bears can be, they get an advantage against a Green Bay group that hasn’t been stout vs. the pass and has injury issues in the secondary. EDGE BEARS
Packers rushing offense vs Bears run defense
Overall it’s been a better season for a lighter Eddie Lacy, who is averaging 5.1 yards per carry, but he rushed only 3.8 yards a touch vs. the Cowboys on Sunday. Without James Starks, the Packers don’t offer much of a 1- 2 punch in the backfield. They may not have Josh Sitton anymore, but T. J. Lang leads a good O- line to run behind. The Bears had a stellar run defense performance last week against the Jaguars, holding Chris Ivory and T. J. Yeldon to 53 combined rushing yards on 17 attempts. Akiem Hicks and Mitch Unrein had good days on the D- line, helping set up plays for Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan. This is a close matchup that may depend on how willing the Bears are to sell out to stop the run and put a struggling Aaron Rodgers in third- and- long. The Bears have the personnel up front to contain Lacy, and would be even better off if Eddie Goldman returned, but Green Bay’s O- line is better than Jacksonville’s. Slight advantage to the Pack. EDGE PACKERS
Packers passing offense vs Bears pass defense
To quote Willie Young, “Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers.” The Bears know what Rodgers is capable of, even if the formerly all- world quarterback is completing only 60.2 percent of his passes for a passer rating of 88.4 – this is someone who has a 103.5 career passer rating. Whether it’s route concepts that aren’t helping his receivers get open or something within Rodgers’ own technique that is causing him to be inaccurate, this passing offense has not been in rhythm. He does have Jordy Nelson back, a big- play threat, along with Randall Cobb, who will really challenge the middle of the Bears’ defense. Ty Montgomery’s role could continue to expand if Davante Adams ( concussion) can’t go, and that group gets a young Bears secondary that could be without last year’s Lambeau hero, Tracy Porter. Jacoby Glenn had penalty issues last week, Cre’Von LeBlanc is an undrafted rookie in the slot, Bryce Callahan can’t stay on the field and the Bears’ safeties aren’t making plays on the football. Add all that to a pass rush that remains inconsistent – the Bears are averaging four QB hits a game. Vic Fangio gives the Bears a boost, but Rodgers will get his. EDGE PACKERS
Sunday’s overall edge
Thursday night games are strange. Short weeks keep some players out of the lineup who would have been able to play on a Sunday. Games are ugly, and that’s how the Bears could pull off an upset, like they did last Thanksgiving. However, the Packers have the seventh- best defense in the league both on third down and in the red zone, and it’s those key areas that have been problems for the Bears of late. It may not be the same Packers offense, but it’s hard to foresee Rodgers and this group losing back- to- back games at home. EDGE PACKERS