ERIE THOUGHTS
If you’re a Cleveland fan, you’re rooting for the Dodgers tonight
The World Series will begin Tuesday in Cleveland, with the Indians participating in their first Fall Classic since 1997.
But while they closed out the American League Championship Series with a 3- 0 victory in Game 5 on Wednesday in Toronto, the National League Championship Series remains hotly contested. The Cubs’ 8- 4 win Thursday in Los Angeles gave them a 3- 2 series lead, with Game 6 on Saturday — and perhaps Game 7 on Sunday— at Wrigley Field.
As the Indians rest, prepare and watch the rest of the NLCS unfold, should they have a rooting interest?
Certainly, either opponent would present a significant challenge. Both won their respective divisions. But while it’s a close call, it would make sense for the Indians to hope they meet the Dodgers as they try for their first championship since 1948.
Here are three reasons why the Cubs would offer a slightly tougher matchup:
1. Starting rotation
The Dodgers opted not to push ace Clayton Kershaw into another outing on short rest in Game 5 of the NLCS, instead starting Kenta Maeda and slotting Kershaw in for Game 6. That means that while the Indians will have time to align their rotation any way they choose for the World Series — presumably with Corey Kluber at the front — the Dodgers wouldn’t be able to go to Kershaw until Game 2 on short rest or Game 3 on regular rest.
If the NLCS goes to Game 7, the Dodgers almost certainly would burn another Rich Hill start. In such a scenario, manager Dave Roberts probably wouldn’t go back to Hill until Game 4 of theWorld Series. In other words, the Dodgers’ rotation setup would be nowhere close to optimal.
The Cubs, on the other hand, started Jon Lester in Game 5. That sets him up for Game 1 of the World Series on normal rest, providing a worthy adversary for Kluber.
2. The Miller effect
Indians left- handed reliever Andrew Miller has been the most overwhelming weapon of the postseason. With manager Terry Francona using him aggressively out of the bullpen, Miller has thrown 11⅔ scoreless innings in six postseason games, striking out 21 and earning ALCS MVP honors.
Miller has the potential to dominate theWorld Series in a similar way, regardless of opponent. And while it’s true that he has put up slightly better numbers against right- handed batters the last two seasons, the Dodgers’ issues with lefty pitchers have been well- documented.
Against southpaws, the Cubs ranked second in the majors in the regular season with an .807 OPS. The Dodgers ranked last with a .622 mark. Even Justin Turner, their lone right- handed everyday player, has shown big reverse splits. The Dodg-
ers’ problem has continued into the postseason, with the club batting .242/. 336/. 395 in 190 at- bats against righties but .190/. 296/. 280 in 100 atbats against lefties.
Those splits also could factor in if the Indians give rookie lefty Ryan Merritt another start. Merritt, who had just one career regular- season start, tossed 4⅓ scoreless innings against the Blue Jays in the ALCS clincher.
3. All- around strength
Anything can happen in a short series. But in most respects, the deep and talented Cubs hold the statistical edge.
In the regular season, the Cubs won more games ( 103 to the Dodgers’ 91), had the far bigger run differential ( 252- 87), were more effective with the bat ( 107 OPS+ vs. 98), ran the bases better ( 15.9 baserunning runs vs. 2.8, according to FanGraphs), were the class of the league defensively ( 82 defensive runs saved vs. 29) and had the more successful rotation ( 2.96 ERA vs. 3.95). The Dodgers’ bullpen put up better numbers, but the Cubs bolstered theirs with midseason additions that included closer Aroldis Chapman.
None of that means the Dodgers won’t make it to the World Series — or win it if they do. But by a narrow margin, they would offer the Indians the more appealing matchup.