WALL ST. PROS SAY TRUMP GRADES OUT AT B OR B-
Market experts hope more of his pro- business promises become reality
Using the market as a measure of success, President Trump has something to boast about: The 5.5% gain for stocks during his first 100 days in office is thirdbest of any president since World War II.
Saturday marks Trump’s 100th day in the White House. The return of the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index under Trump since Inauguration Day is better than the past three U. S. presidents — Barack Obama in 2009, George W. Bush in 2001 and Bill Clinton in 1993 — according to data compiled by financial research firm CFRA. The 9% jump in the early days of John F. Kennedy’s presi- dency in 1961 ranks No. 1.
But Wall Street pros have been frustrated with Trump’s inability to follow through as quickly as promised on getting laws passed that are perceived as good for the U. S. economy. Trump’s failure in late March to repeal and replace Obamacare, for example, raised questions about his ability to work with Congress and get legislation enacted. The gridlock in Washington also pushed back the timetable on other parts of his agenda more focused on boosting growth, such as tax reform and spending on infrastructure.
Those concerns are a big reason why the “Trump rally” has lost some of its momentum and why Wall Street pros interviewed by USA TODAY mostly gave the president grades of “B” or “B-”
for the job he has done so far.
Stock market gains were very strong after Election Day, when investor enthusiasm over Trump’s growth- friendly policies was highest. But returns slowed after he took office, especially for stocks in sectors of the economy that were seen as benefiting most from the president’s call to slash taxes, roll back regulations and spend $ 1 trillion to upgrade the nation’s roads and bridges over a decade. The S& P 500’ s financial sector, for example, is up nearly 20% since Election Day but just 3% since Trump took office, according to S& P Dow Jones Indices. Similarly, stocks in the industrial sector also have seen their gains shrink.
Wall Street lauds Trump for reaching out to business leaders. The president has worked to enhance his pro- business image, meeting regularly with many of the nation’s top CEOs.
While hope remains, doubts are creeping in. “What can he actually get done? How many of his promises can he turn into policy?” asks Matthew Bartolini, head of research at State Street Glob- al Advisors. Bartolini says those types of questions, which first started in early March when the Republican- led Congress unveiled its plan to replace the Affordable Care Act to mixed reviews, resurfaced Wednesday when Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trump’s chief economic adviser Gary Cohn outlined broad details of Trump’s tax reform plan on Day 97 of his presidency.
What Wall Street covets most in all of Trump’s promises is lower taxes for U. S. corporations, as keeping more of the money they make will boost profitability and spur growth, they argue. The president’s plan calls for a cut, from 35% to 15%, in the amount of taxes U. S. companies would pay. It also lowers individual rates and reduces the number of tax brackets from seven to three.
Wall Street sees roadblocks ahead for Trump’s current tax plan and says the odds of getting it passed are low, mainly because it would reduce government revenue and increase the nation’s deficit and debt even more. Ultimately, investors expect more modest tax cuts to get passed.
So, just like in his first 100 days in office, Trump will again be confronted with questions of whether he can deliver.