DERBY OF DOUBTS
In muddled field, look for McCraken to break through
On four occasions in the young career of Irish War Cry, the 3- year old colt has looked the part of a true Kentucky Derby contender, potentially giving trainer Graham Motion his second trip to the winner’s circle here.
But March 4, in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, Irish War Cry inexplicably finished seventh. There was no real excuse for that performance, no traffic trouble. Irish War Cry was laying second off a solid but not overly fast pace, with a clear run down the backstretch and into the far turn. When asked for his best effort, he simply didn’t respond.
“I try to wipe it out of my mind,” Motion said. “It was a disaster. It very clearly stands out. It was a debacle. Hopefully it will never happen again.”
The challenge of sorting out the 143rd Kentucky Derby on Saturday is that Irish War Cry is not unique in this 20horse field. Every horse that has displayed significant promise has at least one major “yeah, but” attached to its record. And the others, who were entered more on hope than accomplishment, will have to perform well above what they’ve shown in order to win.
“Usually you have a horse or a couple that really stand out,” Motion said. “I think it’s a very wide- open race for sure.”
This year’s Derby stands in sharp contrast to the past three. A year ago, undefeated Nyquist was the focus of attention all week and came through with a sharp win. In 2015, American Pharoah stood far above the field on talent and delivered a gritty performance to run down Firing Line. And in 2014, California Chrome went off as a significant 21⁄ 2- to- 1 favorite and pulled away down the stretch.
Among the 20 horses entered this year, only Classic Empire comes close to that level of accomplishment. He was a $ 475,000 yearling purchase, a 2- year old champion, a three- time Grade 1 winner and a son of Pioneerof the Nile, who also sired American Pharoah.
But Classic Empire’s entire preparation for the Derby has been a scramble, from a dull 3- year- old debut in the Holy Bull to a foot abscess that was discovered two days later to a refusal to train that forced trainer Mark Casse to completely reevaluate his plans. Though Classic Empire rebounded to win the Arkansas Derby three weeks ago, it was not a particularly fast race, and there are legitimate questions about whether he has the training foundation to run amile and a quarter.
Classic Empire was made the morningline favorite at 4- 1, which doesn’t represent very good betting value for a horse with so many question marks.
The same can be said of co- second choice Always Dreaming at 5- 1. Though his five- length Florida Derby win was visually impressive, it came on a freaky fast track that favored early speed. Plus, Always Dreaming has been a handful in the mornings at Churchill Downs, so overaggressive in his desire to gallop that trainer Todd Pletcher has gotten him onto the track at the crack of dawn before the crowds show up and experimented with different equipment to get him to settle down.
Without true quality speed in this race, expect Always Dreaming to go to the lead and try to go wire- to- wire. He’ll be chased by long shots Fast and Accurate and State of Honor with Classic Empire, Irish War Cry, Irap and Gormley settling in just off the pace as the field spreads out down the backstretch. By the time the horses reach the far turn, expect the long shots to fall back and a new group of challengers, including-McCraken, Hence, Girvin and Practical Joke, to join the fray.
At the finish, here’s how we predict it to sort out: 1. McCraken: Trainer Ian Wilkes, a disciple of two- time Derby- winning trainer Carl Nafzger, is well- schooled in getting a horse ready to peak on the first Saturday in May. McCraken went 3for- 3 over the Churchill Downs track as a 2- year old and had an impressive 3year old debut in the Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Though he finished third in the Blue Grass Stakes, he has looked terrific on the Churchill Downs track all week. 2. Irish War Cry: The poor Fountain of Youth effort seems to be an outlier, as he came back strong to win the Wood Memorial. His natural speed should have him forwardly placed throughout and ready to pounce at the top of the stretch.
3. Lookin At Lee: Though he’s a pure closer who hasn’t won since August, Lookin At Lee should have a legitimate pace to run at in the Derby and was sneakily impressive in the Arkansas Derby. 4. Irap: His front- running win in the Blue Grass was impressive, and he’s the kind of big, physically strong horse that might be putting it all together at just the right time. Trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Mario Gutierrez know how to win this race, and if the horse runs as good as he has looked physically on the backstretch this week, he’ll run big.