What reality means to fantasy teams
Offseason featured plenty of transactions, butmost won’t pan out
Quick: Whose uniform is Jamaal Charles sporting this season? Which city’s fans will Jared Cook disappoint this year? Is anyone left on the Jets to catch a pass?
Welcome back, fantasy fools! It’s time to hunker down and get serious about this year’s draft. But first, we need to pause and examine the NFL’s shifted landscape.
As usual, dozens of fantasy relevant players— more than 55, by my count— were traded or signed free- agent deals with new teams. But if the past is any indication, precious few will improve their fantasy fortunes.
Here’s my quick look at the most significant offseason moves, categorized by the projected yearoveryear impact on each player’s fantasy value.
Movin’ on up
Look for improved production from these players.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Raiders: It’s hard not to get excited about Oakland’s loaded offense. If Lynch can return from the sofa in anything resembling his beastly form, he could lead the league in rushing touchdowns behind that monster offensive line.
Terrelle Pryor, WR, Redskins: Moving from Cleveland’s moribund offense to the Kirk Cousins- led passing attack in Washington is obviously a major upgrade. Pryor immediately vaults to the top of the Redskins’ overhauled receiving corps, giving him significant fantasy upside. As long as you’re not expecting WR1 production, he shouldn’t disappoint.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Eagles: The former Bear has been a fantasy bust since his stellar 2013 and 2014 seasons, so counting on him to reclaim his mojo comes with significant risk. It would be hard not to improve on the paltry numbers he posted over the last two injury-and suspensionplagued seasons, but WR2 production seems out of reach.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Ravens: Joe Flacco’s back injury casts a pall over Maclin’s early- season prospects, but the veteran is expected to be the go- to wideout now that Steve Smith has hung up his cleats. Maclin’s last season in Kansas City was a bust, so there’s plenty of room for a rebound provided he gets in sync with his new quarterbacks.
Mike Glennon, QB, Bears : Fans may be ready to turn the page on the underachieving Jay Cutler era, but they can’t be thrilled about their passing game being placed in the hands of the former Buc. Glennon will outperform last year’s three- game production by default, but that does not make him roster- worthy.
Look out below
These players will be hardpressed to match last year’s results.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Eagles: Coming off the best season of his career ( highlighted by 18 touchdown runs), Blount brings some stability to the Philly running game. But look for a major step backwards in fantasy production.
Latavius Murray, RB, Vikings: While he’s recovering from offseason ankle surgery, rookie Dalvin Cook is staking his claim to the lead role in the backfield. Murray’s draft stock dips daily.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Patriots: Though most would concede that Tom Brady is at least marginally superior to Drew Brees, Cooks will have trouble improving on 2016’ s 1,173- yard, 8- touchdown performance in the Patriots’ crowded passing game. Brees was better equipped to take advantage of Cooks’ blazing speed, though Brady may target him more in the red zone.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Buccaneers: Looking for an exciting addition to Jameis Winston’s receiving arsenal? Check out rookie tight end O. J. Howard. The 30- year- old Jackson is destined to be a boom- or- bust ( mostly bust) fantasy performer in any given week opposite elite wideout Mike Evans.
Pierre Garcon, WR, 49ers: If a receiver leads the 49ers in production, does he make a sound? Methinks not. Especially with Brian Hoyer at the controls.
Call it awash
These players should post comparable results to last season.
Brian Hoyer, QB, 49ers: Hoyer’s starting status cannot be comforting to diehard 49ers fans. Given the limited firepower of his receiving corps, this passing game will be hard to watch.
Josh McCown, QB, Jets: The well- traveled passer still hasn’t won the starting job over fairly mediocre competition. And now Quincy Enunwa, who was projected to be the top target, is out for the year with a back injury.
Jamaal Charles, RB, Broncos: It’s never a good sign when your projections are preceded by the phrase “if he makes the team.” Charles is coming off back- toback seasons lost to knee injuries, and he clearly isn’t the every- down workhorse he once was.
Mike Gillislee, RB, Patriots: Conventional wisdom has pegged Gillislee as “the new LeGarrette Blount” in New England. But you and I know how frustrating it can be to own Patriots backs, even when they’re ostensibly labeled “starter.” Draft him if you enjoy weekly headaches. Ditto for former Bengal Rex Burkhead.
Brandon Marshall, WR, Giants: Despite seeing the field in all but one game, Marshall couldn’t crack the Top 50 receiver ranks in 2016. Playing opposite Odell Beckham, Jr., and with Eli Manning at the controls, a rebound year is possible. But how big a jump the 12th - year receiver can make is another story. He’s a WR3 at best.
Coming nextweek: A look at the 2017 rookie class.