2018 FREE AGENTS WILL SET THE BAR
Harper and Machado are locks to cash in. But what about the rest of the group?
Make no mistake: The free agent class of 2018 should be the greatest in baseball history.
From MVP winners to future Hall of Famers to multiple franchise players, this star- studded cast will likely produce the first $ 400 million player, generate more than $ 2 billion in future salaries and stoke perhaps the wildest offseason of fiscal insanity the sport has seen.
Yet while anticipation for this group is appropriate and fan giddiness is grounded in reality, the 2017 season has proved that ballplayers are, indeed, assets.
Some gain value. Many decline. Predicting future performance — particularly for pro athletes fighting unsympathetic aging curves— is always problematic.
Now, don’t get us wrong: The Class of ’ 18 is far from devolving into Bryce Harper and Everyone Else.
But the penultimate year before a contingent that includes five MVP or Cy Young Award winners hits the market has cast shadows on the group.
Of the consensus top dozen players who could be available after the 2018 season, five — four of them pitchers — have landed on the disabled list. Two — lefthanders Clayton Kershaw and David Price — will hit the market only if they opt out of contracts valued at $ 215 million and $ 217 million, respectively.
While Kershaw’s latest back injury and Price’s ongoing elbow woes won’t necessarily extend into 2018, it’s worth noting that both are less likely to opt out if they finish next season with significant medical red flags.
At a time when actuaries are as valuable to organizations as scouts, teams will be far more conscious of age than they were even six years ago, when Albert Pujols received a $ 240 million contract that will extend into his 40s.
Oh, teams will pay top dollar for stars in their primes such as Harper. But recent offseasons indicate that players on the wrong side of 30 will find it challenging to prod teams into paying for past performance.
The list that follows — and the market it produces — will be fluid over the next 15 months. Individual player values will be rebuilt and torn down; a pitcher such as New York Mets starter Matt Harvey can go from limited appeal to free agent jackpot with a healthy, dominant season.
With that in mind, a peek at how the 2018- 19 feeding frenzy is rounding into form, with ages as of opening day 2019. An asterisk denotes players with opt- out clauses. Statistics enteringMonday.
1. Bryce Harper ( 26)
Résumé: 2015 National League MVP, career .905 on- base plus slugging percentage ( OPS), 150 homers before turning 25.
Trending: Up. Never mind the bone bruise in his knee that will cost him most of the remaining regular season. His 29
homers and 1.034 OPS this season more easily frame his 2016 struggles as an injuryaddled aberration.
Outlook: Adios, A- Rod. Harper’s age, upside, track record and marketability will make him the biggest free agent get ever.
2. MannyMachado ( 26)
Résumé: Three All- Star appearances and top- 10 MVP finishes, career .811 OPS and 27.9 Wins Above Replacement ( WAR).
Trending: Even. Machado’s bad/ good 2017 (. 741 OPS before the break, .967 after) won’t threaten his status as 1A, behind Harper.
Outlook: Machado might not get Harper money, but his market might be wider, as upper- middle class clubs such as the Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers figure to join the big- market behemoths for his services.
3. Clayton Kershaw( 31)*
Résumé: Three- time Cy Young Award winner, one- time MVP, 141- 62 record, 2.34 ERA, 1.00 walks plus hits allowed per inning pitched ( WHIP).
Trending: Down. Make no mistake: Any team would find room for the greatest left- hander of his generation. But with back woes interrupting his last two seasons, teams will have pause about giving a 31- year- old Kershaw a fresh deal north of $ 200 million.
Outlook: Perhaps the most intriguing figure in this class. Does Kershaw want to be a Los Angeles Dodger for life or start anew? Will another DL trip in 2017 make him rethink forfeiting $ 65 million to hit the market?
4. Josh Donaldson ( 33)
Résumé: 2015 American League MVP, four top- 10 MVP finishes, .873 career OPS.
Trending: Even. The skills are clearly there — a .393 on- base percentage and 20 homers in 287 at- bats this season — but Donaldson succumbed to significant injury for the first time, as a calf injury has limited him to 81 games.
Outlook: Donaldson will be the flag bearer for the 30- something crowd. Will suitors bid on his track record or guard against his advancing age? An athletic freak, Donaldson looks to be a good bet for the long term, but players approaching their mid- 30s aren’t as valued as they were even a few years ago.
5. David Price ( 33)*
Résumé: 2012 Cy Young Award winner, two runner- up finishes, five 200strikeout seasons, career 126- 68 record.
Trending: Down. Like Kershaw, Price is a 2018 opt- out candidate who’s on the DL. And Price is dealing with a vexing elbow issue that has limited him to 66 innings this season.
Outlook: Price would be walking away from a lot more money — four years and $ 127 million — than Kershaw. But Price’s clashes with Boston media members and his injuries have made for amiserable season. Perhaps no player in this class has more riding on 2018.
6. Craig Kimbrel ( 30)
Résumé: 285 career saves, six- time All- Star, averaging 14.8 strikeouts per nine innings for career
Trending: Up. Kimbrel has 29 saves, is striking out 16.8 batters per nine and boasts a 0.62 WHIP.
Outlook: Kimbrel’s age, dominance and the market’s thirst for relievers will bode well. Aroldis Chapman’s record $ 86 million deal will be within reach.
7. Charlie Blackmon ( 32)
Résumé: Two- time All- Star, NLleading 168 hits, 115 runs and 310 total bases this season
Trending: Up. Blackmon’s next home run will be his career- high 30th, and he’ll likely finish with an OPS north of 1.000 for the first time.
Outlook: Blackmon will face the same age concerns as many in this class. Another hurdle: the Coors Field factor. His career OPS is .965 at home, .738 on the road.