Iran nuclear deal enters new phase of uncertainty
Much is at stake as Trump decides whether to back out
President Trump, who has called the Iran nuclear agreement the “worst deal ever,” has signaled he will back out of the accord before an Oct. 15 deadline for certifying that Iran is complying with the terms — which U. N. inspectors say is the case.
The 2015 accord, which was approved by President Obama, lifts international sanctions on Iran in return for a longterm suspension of its nuclear development program.
Supporters include most of the international community and businesses eager to sign deals with oil- rich Iran.
Opponents, from Trump to Israel to members of Congress from both parties, say the agreement gives Iran billions of dollars to sponsor terrorist organizations around the world and develop ballistic missiles, which are not covered under the accord.
Members of Trump’s own administrato tion, including Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, have cautioned against undermining the agreement, also signed by China, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom. “If we can confirm that Iran is living by the agreement, if we can determine that this is in our best interest, then clearly we should stay with it,” Mattis said in congressional testimony last week.
The president’s likely decision to refuse certification of the agreement wouldn’t immediately kill it, but it would lead to a period of great uncertainty. Three possibilities:
A SYMBOLIC BREAK
Trump could refuse to certify compliance but allow the terms of the agreement to remain in place. That lets him express his opposition without having the deal fall apart.
If Trump doesn’t certify the deal, it is then up to Congress to determine how to proceed. Congress probably would not take action — such as imposing new sanctions — which would leave the accord in place, said Michael Rubin, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute. “Decertification isn’t synonymous with walking away from the deal.”
If Congress sticks to the status quo, major investments, including a Boeing deal to sell Iran’s airlines $ 3 billion worth of commercial aircraft, could proceed. Certification, which is required every 90 days, is a legislative measure that is not part of the international agreement with Iran.
THE DEAL FALLS APART
Trump could decertify compliance and Congress could reimpose sanctions and even add new ones, which could prompt Iran to walk away from the deal and restart its nuclear program. “If Iranians walk away and blame the United States, that’s a twofer” for Iran, Rubin said. Iran already has benefited from lifted sanctions and could restart its nuclear program anyway — and blame it all on the United States. New sanctions would endanger billions of dollars in investments that already have been negotiated. They also would anger U. S. allies, including France, which has urged the United States not discard the nuclear deal. “Proponents of the agreement are saying American credibility is at stake, especially with European allies,” Rubin said.
U. S. AND IRAN RENEGOTIATE
Opponents of the deal want the U. S. and its allies to force Iran to accept modifications, such as tighter restrictions on missile tests and funding radicalmilitias in the Middle East.
“Congress and the president, working together, should lay out how the deal must change and, if it doesn’t, the consequences Iran will face,” said Sen. Tom Cotton, R.- Ark. Cotton, a leading opponent of the deal, met last week with Trump.
The Iranian government, however, has ruled out renegotiating any part of the agreement. “It will be a great pity if this agreement were to be destroyed by rogue newcomers to the world of politics,” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has said.
It’s possible the White House could work with Congress to threaten severe sanctions as a way to get Iran to agree to renegotiate, said Luke Coffey, an analyst at the Heritage Foundation. But he acknowledged that scenario is unlikely: “I don’t see why Iran would want to renegotiate anything, since the deal is so favorably on their side.”