Powerful Irish spell trouble for Power Five
College football’s championship season is officially underway.
Starting in late August and continuing through a riotous final Saturday of October, the list of title contenders in the Football Bowl Subdivision has been trimmed to a select few. Rosy expectations have given way to reality: As revealed Tuesday night by the debut College Football Playoff rankings, the list of true contenders for the two national semifinals numbers little more than a dozen.
Each of the Power Five conferences has at least one team ranked in the top 12.
“What gave Georgia a very slight edge over Alabama this week in the eyes of the selection committee were really the two top- 25 wins that Georgia has, over Mississippi State but specifically over Notre Dame,” said College Football Playoff selection committee chairman Kirby Hocutt, the athletics director at Texas Tech.
At other times in the brief history of the Playoff, which made its debut three seasons ago, the dialogue around the first standings would center on which conference faced the specter of being left out in the cold. The math leads to musical chairs: four spots, five conferences.
This season could be different. Instead, the question doesn’t ask which one conference will be left out but rather which conferences — meaning multiple — could find themselves without a team in the national semifinals, thanks to Notre Dame’s surge from last season’s losing finish to No. 3 in the debut rankings. The Irish, now 7- 1 after Saturday’s 35- 14 win against No. 20 N. C. State, are the potential fly in the ointment for two Power Five leagues.
Consider the scenario where Notre Dame runs the table through November. All told, the team’s postseason résumé would include wins against five opponents in the current Playoff rankings: Michigan State, USC, N. C. State, Miami and Stanford. Given that Notre Dame’s lone loss came to Georgia, and even that by just a single point, the program would have an extremely valid case for a top- four seed.
“We have to be aware of our situation,” Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly said on ESPN. “We’ve been in a one- game playoff since that loss. We are two- thirds of the way through the season and have to play well the next four games.”
The four- team field will already sideline one major conference. Notre Dame’s inclusion would eliminate another.
The Irish are already ahead of the top- ranked teams from the Big 12, Pac- 12, ACC and Big Ten. That gap may grow, given the Irish’s tough November schedule, or widen to an unmanageable distance, should those leagues put forth a two- loss champion. For both the Pac- 12 and Big 12, the trump card may be a conference title game: Notre Dame’s season ends at Stanford on Nov. 25, while every other league plays an additional game the following Saturday.
And if Alabama and Georgia make the final four with Notre Dame, then only two Power Five conferenceswould be represented.