Free agent predictions: Where the stars will land

The period between the general manager meetings and the winter meetings – set to run this year from Dec. 11- 14 – often brings about a spurt of free agent activity as MLB teams flush with cash are eager to spend it before the holidays.

So look for the action to start picking up sometime after the Thanksgiving leftovers have been digested.

This offseason’s market may be impacted by two major forces, the Giancarlo Stanton trade discussions and the possible entry of Japanese twoway star Shohei Ohtani, whose arrival is still far from certain. Given the unpredictability of those two factors, we’ll set them aside as we take an educated guess as to where some of the premier free agents might land.

J. D. Martinez

The most potent power hitter on the market has joined forces with agent Scott Boras, who has set a target price of $ 210 million, relying on his triedand- true strategy of asking for the moon before settling for a star.

Martinez, 30, has certainly positioned himself to break the bank after enjoying his best season, banging out 45 home runs and driving in 104 runs in 119 games split between the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Boston Red Sox have been frequently mentioned as suitors for Martinez, and their offense certainly needs an upgrade after finishing last in the AL in home runs and next- to- last in slugging last season. But the Red Sox have a young, athletic and still inexpensive outfield composed of Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr.

The St. Louis Cardinals, coming off back- to- back playoff- less years for the first time since 2007- 08, are seeking an offensive boost as well. After balking at the price for Stanton, expect them to make a push for Martinez.

Yu Darvish

Last seeing surrendering eight earned runs in 3 1/ 3 World Series innings, Darvish lost a lot of luster as an elite pitcher. How much money he forsook along the way remains the source of some debate.

Teams looking for a No. 1 or 2 starter are more likely to focus on Darvish’s ability to strike out batters ( 10.1 per nine innings), his 31 starts in his first full season since undergoing Tommy John elbow surgery and the fact he’ll pitch most of next season at age 31.

No club blends the need for Darvish’s services and the resources to pay for them quite like the Chicago Cubs, who are losing Jake Arrieta and John Lackey from their rotation.

Jake Arrieta

Since his Cy Young Award season of 2015, Arrieta has seen his ERA double from 1.77 to 3.53 and his innings pitched shrink from 229 to 168 1/ 3. Other stats like WHIP ( walks and hits per inning), home runs and strikeouts have also been trending in the wrong direction. That’s partly because Arrieta’s 2015 was nearly impossible to replicate.

So at this stage Arrieta slots less as a staff ace and more as a solid No. 2 or 3, and the team that signs him shouldn’t necessarily count on 200 innings, considering Arrieta has reached that total only once in his career. But he could still be a difference- maker for a club like the Texas Rangers, who need a rotation upgrade to get back in contention.

Eric Hosmer

In a market bursting with first basemen – including the likes of Carlos Santana, Yonder Alonso, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, Mark Reynolds and Mitch Moreland – Hosmer stands out because of his combination of youth ( just turned 28) and skills. Not all are enamored of Hosmer, some pointing out his high groundball rate and the fact he has never been a prototypical power- hitting first baseman.

But he did produce 25 home runs each of the last two years with the Kansas City Royals while playing half his games in a pitchers’ park, and he delivered career- highs last season in batting average (. 318) and OPS (. 882). Nobody in Boston came close to those numbers in 2017, which is why the Red Sox figure to battle it out with the Royals for the right to sign Hosmer in his prime.

Mike Moustakas

Another Royals alum in a list full of them, Moustakas broke the franchise record for home runs by hitting 38 this past season, an increase of 16 over his previous career best. The third baseman also proved his durability by playing in 148 games after missing most of the 2016 season with a torn ACL in his right knee.

Not all the signs were positive for Moustakas, whose fielding deteriorated to the point that advanced metrics regarded him as one of the league’s worst third basemen, with a minus- 8 defensive runs saved. But he’s 29 and the most appealing player available at his position. The Los Angeles Angels look like the right fit, with the San Francisco Giants – who finished last in the majors in batting average, home runs, RBI and OPS from their third basemen – taking a close look as well.

Wade Davis

The top closer on the market, Davis is coming off a season when he went 32- for- 33 in save chances for the Chicago Cubs while striking out 12.1 batters per nine innings, the second- best mark of his career. He also held hitters to a .186 batting average.

There are several signs that, at 32, Davis doesn’t dominate batters the way he did two or three years ago. His OPS allowed has climbed each of the last three seasons, from .408 in 2014 to .600 in 2017. And his spike in walks to a career- high of 4.3 per nine innings was concerning.

Lance Lynn

The longtime Cardinals right- hander proved he was fully back from Tommy John surgery by making 33 starts and throwing 186 1/ 3 innings. His 2017 ERA of 3.43 and his WHIP of 1.23 were in line with his career marks.

Lynn, who turns 31 in May, saw his walks and strikeouts move in the wrong direction, but not at alarming rates, and it’s possible he’ll be stronger in his second season back from the surgery. That will be one of the considerations for teams like the Philadelphia Phillies and Minnesota Twins, who could use a veteran like Lynn in their rotation.

Lorenzo Cain

Timing is everything in free agency. Two years ago, Cain was coming off a third- place finish in the AL MVP voting after helping the Royals win their first World Series in 30 years. He could have named his price if he had hit the market then.

Now Cain is a riskier investment, a center fielder who will be 32 in April and, while still a strong defender, no longer ranks among the game’s elite. Cain did play in a career- high 155 games last season and put up an .803 OPS, his second- highest ever. That kind of performance should attract the interest of the Seattle Mariners, whose center fielders produced a meager .612 OPS last season, the majors’ lowest.