Who’s in Oscar’s sights, and who may be snubbed
Screen Actors Guild Awards and Golden Globes have been handed out, Oscar voters’ pencils are down, and the Academy Awards race is about to get very real.
Oscar nominations for the March 4 ceremony will be handed out Tuesday, kicking offa newphase of awards season with snubs, surprises and plenty of things to argue about for the next month and a half. Breaking down the contenders from the pretenders:
Best picture
The best: After taking the bestdrama Globe and cast SAG honor, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is as close as we have to a frontrunner. Not too far behind is The Shape of Water, armed with Critics’ Choice and Producers Guild victories. And since 2012, the Directors Guild of America nominees have all gotten a nod, which bodes well for Globe winner Lady Bird, Dunkirk and Get Out. The rest: Recent years have seen the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences pick eight or nine films ( the maximum is 10), which means SAG- nominated Mudbound and The Big Sick, as well as Globe nominees I, Tonya, The Post and Call Me By Your Name, are all in the mix. Plus, don’t count out Wonder Woman or Molly’s Game, with Darkest Hour and The Florida Project as dark horses.
Actor
The best: Transformed into Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour, Gary Oldman is rolling with SAG, Critics’ Choice and Globe wins. Also getting a nod are Call Me By Your Name’s Timothée Chalamet, and retiring Phantom Thread star Daniel Day- Lewis. The rest: The final two could be picked from Daniel Kaluuya ( Get Out), Denzel Washington ( Roman J. Israel, Esq.) and James Franco ( The Disaster Artist), all of whom earned SAG and Globe spots. Best shot at sneaking in: The Post’s Tom Hanks.
Actress
The best: SAG and Globe wins make Billboards’ Frances McDormand a lock. Lady Bird’s Saoirse Ronan, the Globe winner for comedy actress, also seems a sure thing.
The rest: Judi Dench ( Victoria & Abdul), Margot Robbie ( I, Tonya) and Sally Hawkins ( Water) have SAG and Globe nominations. Michelle Williams, a Globe nominee, could benefit from the pay inequity flap around All
the Money in the World. And Meryl Streep is a legend in The Post.
Supporting actor
The best: Sam Rockwell ( Three
Billboards) has already snagged SAG and Globe gold, so he’s in. Willem Dafoe ( The Florida Project) will be, too.
The rest: A SAG nomination will helpRockwell’s co- starWoody Harrelson, and Armie Hammer and/ or Michael Stuhlbarg from Name should squeeze in. If only one of the Name guys goes ( or Harrelson gets snubbed), it leaves the door open for Richard Jenkins ( Water) or Christopher Plummer, whose heroics in Money probably earned some goodwill.
Supporting actress
The best: I, Tonya’s Allison Janney picked up SAG, Critics’ Choice and Globe honors. She, Laurie Metcalf ( Lady Bird) and Mary J. Blige ( Mudbound) seem the best bets.
The rest: SAG nominees Holly Hunter ( The Big Sick) and Hong Chau ( Downsizing), as well as Globe contender Octavia Spencer ( Water), will be jockeying for the final two slots. One major surprise could be Tiffany Haddish, thanks to her movie- stealing turn in Girls Trip.
Director
The best: On average, three or four Directors Guild nominees match the Oscars slate, so expect most of the category to come out Globe and Critics’ Choice winner Guillermo del Toro ( Water), Christopher Nolan ( Dunkirk), Jordan Peele ( Get Out), Greta Gerwig ( Lady Bird) and Martin McDonagh ( Three Billboards). The rest: Steven Spielberg is Steven Spielberg, so The Post director could slip in, though so could Luca Guadagnino for his acclaimed Name.