Metrics show fall- off for Avi
Anytime a player who has struggled has a breakthrough season, such as White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia did in 2017, progression systems will indicate some regression the next season.
Earlier seasons— especially the last three— form the basis for projections, along with an aging curve, home ballpark and other factors.
Until a breakthrough player has a second big season, projections will indicate some fall- off from the first. In Garcia’s case, a .392 batting average on balls in play is a red flag, but a .353 expected weighted on- base average is strong despite being 22 points lower than his .375 WOBA in 2017.
Garcia’s breakthrough came in his age- 26 season, a normal time for a leap forward. His .330 batting average was second in the American League and came after a .245 average in 2016 and a career .277 average entering 2017.
It was a terrific season overall. Garcia ranked 10th in the AL with an .885 OPS, 11th with his .375 WOBA, 12th among position players with a 4.2WAR as calculated at Fangraphs. com and 16th with a 4.6 in Baseball- Reference. com’s WAR.
Projection systems should be expected to indicate something better than Garcia’s earlier years but not quite as good as 2017. The ZIPS system published at Fangraphs. com does just that, with a .281 batting average, .770 OPS, .328 WOBA and 1.4f WAR.
BABIP excludes home runs and focuses on results where opposing defenses become a factor. Garcia’s BABIP led the majors in 2017, with the Rockies’ Charlie Blackmon next at .371. League averages hover around .300, and Garcia’s career BABIP before last season was .320.
Defenses weren’t making as many plays on his batted balls as is normal. When that happens, regression almost always follows. The Rockies’ DJ LeMahieu, who led the majors with a .388 BABIP in 2016, fell to .351 last season.
As for weighted on- base average, the weights vary slightly from year to year, but the basic calculation is .69 x unintentional walks + .72 x HBP + .89 x singles + 1.27 x doubles + 1.62 x triples + 2.10 x home runs, all divided by the sum of at- bats, walks, hit- by- pitches and sacrifice flies minus intentional walks.
Statcast data on launch angles, velocities and directions of batted balls have enabled baseballsavant.mlb.com to create xwOBA. If the defense turns an out on a ball that would be a hit 73 percent of the time or the batter gets a hit on ball that would be caught 64 percent of the time, the events can be weighted to give a WOBA that would be expected given plays made in normal proportion.
His xwOBA suggests Garcia’s performance wasn’t quite as good as his results, but a .353 WOBA to match his 2017 xwOBA still would be a big plus for the Sox. Only 22 AL hitters were as good or better last season.
Projections have to indicate some decline. A .392 BABIP is not sustainable. But if Garcia can approach his xwOBA of a year ago, he’ll remain a valuable player.