U. S., Russia edging toward Syria showdown in new Cold War
MOSCOW — When the U. S. fired Tomahawk missiles at a Syrian airfield a year ago after a chemical weapons attack, the Pentagon gave Moscow advance warning to get its personnel out of harm’s way.
Since then, U. S.- Russian relations have soured, and the two nuclear powers have raised the ante, getting dangerously close to a potential military clash in Syria.
President Donald Trump has taunted Moscow to “get ready” for “nice and new and ‘ smart’” missiles coming to punish Syria for a purported chemical attack on Saturday that killed at least 40 people. The tweet followed Russia’s warning that it will strike at incoming U. S. missiles and their launch platforms.
The defiant posture leaves both the White House and the Kremlin with fewer options to respond without losing face.
A statement last month by Russia’s top military officer effectively drew a red line on any U. S. strike. Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian military’s General Staff, said Russian military officers are at Syrian facilities throughout the country and warned that “if a threat to our servicemen emerges, the Russian armed forces will take retaliatory measures against both missiles and their carriers.”
Some say the U. S. could launch a limited strike like it did in April 2017, when it hit Syria’s Shayrat airfield with cruise missiles after warning Russia. Such a scenario would allow Washington to claim it made good on its promise to punish Syrian President Bashar Assad without triggering a clash with Russia.
A pinpoint U. S. strike on Syrian targets that does not harm Russian personnel “will allow Trump to say that the Assad regime has paid a heavy price … and Russia in its turn will be able to limit itself to ringing statements,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, the head of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policies, an association of top Russian political and security experts.
He added, however, that the U. S. would be unlikely to warn Russia of the coming strike this time.
“The context of the relations has changed radically in the past year: We’re in a state of a real and tangible Cold War,” Lukyanov said.