MITCH MOVING FORWARD
With 108.3 passer rating in last five games, Bears quarterback continues to show promise
Halfway through the Bears’ 16-game slate, the Sun-Times’ Bears experts — Adam L. Jahns, Patrick Finley and Mark Potash — break down the first half of the season and make predictions for the rest of the way.
Mitch Trubisky has been …
Jahns: Experiencing the ups and downs that everyone — fans, media, analysts, pundits and so on — should have expected him to have in his second season and his first with coach Matt Nagy. Has he been perfect? Nope. But he’s making progress. Trubisky is an important part of the Bears’ turnaround this season. Just look at his numbers: 64.2 completion percentage, 1,949 passing yards, 16 touchdown passes, seven interceptions, 302 rushing yards and two touchdown runs. He currently ranks seventh in ESPN’s total QBR rankings.
Finley: Improving. In his first three games, he threw two touchdowns and three interceptions and posted a 77.8 passer rating. In the last five, he has thrown 14 touchdowns and four picks and has a 108.3 rating. Even if he struggles in games during the second half — and he will, given the inconsistency of youth — the Bears have proved they can win with him. After all, in those first three games, they were one Kyle Fuller drop away from going 3-0.
Potash: Good enough. When a quarterback describes himself as a “rep person,” it’s going to take time for those reps to accumulate — in practice and games — for Trubisky to develop. It’s still too early to tell if he’s Jared Goff or Blake Bortles, but he’s making acceptable progress.
Matt Nagy has been …
Jahns: Everything we expected when he was hired and more. He has modernized the offense and helped Trubisky improve, and his vibrant personality has changed the culture of Halas Hall. But it still feels as if Nagy has exceeded all early expectations of himself. It starts with being in first place in the NFC North. It can be argued that the Bears are one year ahead of schedule.
Finley: The best first-year coach in the NFL. He’s the only one with a winning
record, and he has more wins than the Raiders’ Jon Gruden, the Giants’ Pat Shurmur and the Cardinals’ Steve Wilks combined. Not bad for someone who had never spent a full season as a play-caller.
Potash: In control. Nagy has a steady hand, doesn’t get rattled, doesn’t act like he’s the smartest guy in the room and seems to learn from his mistakes — like sitting Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson after playing both against the Patriots.
First-half MVP …
Jahns: There are many candidates: Trubisky, running back Tarik Cohen, defensive lineman Akiem Hicks and, of course, Mack. Fuller and safety Eddie Jackson also have been impressive despite some bumpy moments. Overall, it’s a boon to have several players to consider. It’s a result of the talent upgrades that general manager Ryan Pace made over several years.
Finley: Mack has played four and a half healthy games, but his presence has changed the Bears’ expectations this season and for the franchise at large. That’s the definition of an MVP.
Potash: Hicks. Every time the bar has been raised, Hicks has continued to clear it. He makes an impact on almost every snap.
Biggest surprise ...
Jahns: Receiver Taylor Gabriel, who has 37 catches for 476 yards and two touchdowns. He’s more than a speed threat. Gabriel is on pace to have the best season of his five-year career. The Patriots’ decision to bracket him with coverage was the ultimate sign of respect.
Finley: The Bears have 21 takeaways through eight games. The next one they get will match their season total from last year. The one after that will mark their 23rd — or as many takeaways as they had in all of 2015 and 2016 combined. Their knack for interceptions and fumble recoveries has been remarkable.
Potash: Gabriel. How often have the Bears brought in a complementary receiver from a productive offense only to see him wither with greater responsibility here? In an offense learning to stand on its feet, Gabriel has been better than expected, with a lot of room for growth.
Biggest disappointment …
Jahns: Right now, it’s the plays that the Bears’ defense failed to make in losses to the Packers in Week 1 and Dolphins in Week 6. The argument can be made that the Bears are one dropped interception and a few missed tackles away from being a one-loss team.
Finley: The Bears gave Cody Parkey $9 million guaranteed this offseason to make meaningful kicks. He missed a 46-yarder in a game the Bears were lucky to win by two points in Arizona, and he missed a 53-yarder that would have beaten the Dolphins in overtime. He needs to be better.
Potash: Almost a minor quibble on a team that has had a solid first half, but special teams have not made the progress the other two phases have made. Parkey missed a key field goal against the Dolphins; Cordarrelle Patterson had a 95-yard kickoff return for a touchdown; and Dont’a Hightower blocked a punt. But still better than last season.
The largest question remaining …
Jahns: How will the Bears handle their five remaining division games? They must prove that they can beat the Packers, Lions and Vikings. John Fox’s Bears didn’t. They went 0-6 against them in 2017, 2-4 in 2016 and 1-5 in 2015.
Finley: Can they learn to hold on to leads? They blew a 20-point lead against the Packers, only one point off the franchise record for a come-from-ahead loss. They led the Dolphins by 11 and the Patriots by 10 and lost both games. For a coach whose last game in Kansas City featured a blown lead in the playoffs, it’s no small question.
Potash: Can the Bears stay healthy through the final eight weeks of the season, especially with no heal-up bye week? Trubisky’s development still is the biggest on-field issue, but injuries often tell the tale in the NFL, especially in the second half. The Bears have good balance and showed they can dominate average or worse teams without Mack. Even Kyle Long’s injury looks like a hole the offensive line can fill. But their margin for error still is small, and their depth is questionable.
One bold prediction ...
Jahns: The Bears will beat the Rams at Soldier Field on Dec. 9. You asked for bold? That’s it. The division is already there for the taking. A blustery, wintry game could help the Bears against the high-scoring Rams. It would be a statement win.
Finley: After having zero defenders named to the Pro Bowl in the Fox era, the Bears will have no fewer than four elected to the game this year: Mack, Hicks, Fuller and either inside linebacker Danny Trevathan or, if he continues his touchdown barrage, safety Eddie Jackson.
Potash: The offense will have a better second half than the defense. Good opponents can neutralize the Bears’ defense and force them to paint-by-numbers to get the job done. But this offense has the opportunity for significant growth as Trubisky develops, as the many moving parts of a maturing offense come together as Nagy and offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich find a way to better incorporate the running game.
Projected final record ...
Jahns: 10-6. The Bears are the only team in the top five in points scored and points allowed. Their plus-82 scoring differential is the third-best mark in the NFL. Again, it’s OK to be cautiously optimistic about them.
Finley: 10-6. Games against the Giants and 49ers should be walkovers, even on the road. Win all three of their divisional home games and the Bears finish with 10 wins, minimum.
Potash: 10-6. While the Bears still have a long way to go, this team seems more likely to break through rather than hit the wall, especially with neither the Packers nor the Vikings running away with anything. Playoffs? The Bears are going to have to win the close ones to pull that off.