THEY STILL AREN’T TRU CONTENDERS
Bears have plenty to prove before being Super Bowl-worthy
The home stretch is here, with the Bears’ first playoff berth since 2010 well within reach. SunTimes experts Adam L. Jahns, Patrick Finley and Mark Potash break down the Bears’ biggest challenges and achievements at the quarter pole:
Are the Bears a legit Super Bowl contender?
Jahns: No. At least not yet. As good as their defense has been, it still hasn’t resembled a great one that’s capable of carrying the team the distance. A great defense closes out the Packers, Dolphins and Giants. And a great defense doesn’t miss this many tackles. On offense, quarterback Mitch Trubisky still has much to prove. He certainly looks like a quarterback you can win with, and that includes the Super Bowl. But that might not be this season.
Finley: They’re the third-best team in the NFC. But if the playoffs started today, the Bears would host the wild-card game and then have to go on the road to beat the Saints and Rams, most likely, in consecutive weeks to reach the Super Bowl. Stranger things have happened — the Falcons beat the Rams in Los Angeles last season to advance in the postseason — but that’s quite a gauntlet.
Potash: They are if Trubisky not only returns but continues to grow along with the offense. In that scenario, the Bears have the offensive and defensive balance they need to win in the playoffs and on the road. All postseason prospects for this team are based on them getting better in the final month.
Biggest concern down the stretch ...
Jahns: Their schedule. At worst, the Bears need to split their final four games against the Rams, Packers, 49ers and Vikings. The Packers fired Mike McCarthy, but they shouldn’t be underestimated. Not with Aaron Rodgers. It’s still a prove-it game. Nagy’s Bears might be different than John Fox’s, but the Packers-Bears rivalry still includes a victory by quarterback Brett Hundley.
Finley: The Bears have allowed 123 points in the first three quarters of games this season — and 112 points in the fourth. They’ve pitched a shutout in the fourth only once, during their win against the Cardinals. Blaming garbage time only goes so far. The Bears built a unit that can win playoff games, but to do so, it has
JAHNS: MITCH TRUBISKY STILL HAS MUCH TO PROVE. HE CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A QUARTERBACK YOU CAN WIN WITH, AND THAT INCLUDES THE SUPER BOWL. BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THIS SEASON.
to dominate when it matters most.
Potash: Whether Trubisky can stay healthy when he returns. The Bears won’t coddle Trubisky, which is a good thing. He needs to let it all out to continue his maturation process. But it also comes with obvious risk. All it takes is one bone-jarring hit to change everything for the Bears.
Over the final 4 games, Mitch Trubisky must …
Jahns: Be the quarterback the Bears believe he can be. That might sound like too much for a second-year quarterback who is returning from a two-game absence because of an injury to his throwing shoulder. But the Bears’ first playoff appearance in eight years is there for the taking. His development and productive play are essential to that happening.
Finley: Continue to be an aggressive runner. The risks are considerable, the reward greater. Chase Daniel’s two-week stint as the starter showed Trubisky’s running ability — or at least that threat — might be the secret sauce of the entire offense. Hopefully, Trubisky invested in a sliding coach when he was gone. Any Cubs player — except Anthony Rizzo, who has a tendency to take out catchers — would suffice.
Potash: Stay healthy and be more efficient against above-average defenses. Against the top three defenses he has faced, Trubisky has had passer ratings of 77.2 (Packers), 76.0 (Bills) and 61.9 (Vikings), throwing for 171 yards or fewer against each of them. Assuming he returns, he’ll get another shot at the Packers and Vikings and will face the 49ers, who are 12th in total defense, though 27th in defensive points allowed.
Does Trubisky’s injury concern you?
Jahns: It doesn’t in the long term. But he might have some rust to shake off Sunday night against the Rams. Trubisky, though, should be able to find his stride heading into the season finale against the Vikings. The Rams, Packers and 49ers rank 24th, 20th and 29th in opposing quarterback passer rating, respectively.
Finley: Any time a quarterback has an injured throwing shoulder, you’d be a fool to take it lightly. The Bears swear it’s not a long-term problem. I’m more concerned with how Trubisky, an avowed “reps guy” who needs turns in practice to feel comfortable, plays upon his return. Did he rust faster than others?
Potash: Yes. Three things in particular: Just how healthy he is and how effective he’ll be if he’s not 100 percent; how much rust he’ll have whenever he returns and how quickly he’ll regain his rhythm with the offense; and whether he’ll be able to stay healthy.
Matt Nagy’s biggest challenge will be ...
Jahns: Finishing what he started. It’s a cliché, but it represents the Bears’ current predicament, with an 8-4 record and three meaningful games against the Rams, Packers and Vikings remaining.
Finley: To exorcise the demons of last January, when his Chiefs blew an 18-point lead and lost to the Titans in the wild-card round. To have a chance, he needs to split his remaining four games.
Potash: Not getting too cute. Nagy has pushed many of the right buttons to keep his players engaged and focused and defenses on their toes. But when things work as well as they have — Akiem Hicks’ touchdown, Tarik Cohen’s touchdown pass against the Giants, for instance — you can get closer and closer to going over the line where inventiveness becomes hazardous.
The Bears’ MVP is …
Jahns: TBD. Outside linebacker Khalil Mack, safety Eddie Jackson, cornerback Kyle Fuller and Hicks all have their cases. But a representative from the offense’s turnaround under Nagy should also be considered. Trubisky? Cohen? The Bears’ MVP — whoever it is — still has four games left.
Finley: Mack. Hicks might be having a more complete season, but everything starts with opponents accounting for the star edge rusher. That’s allowed the Bears to build the league’s best defense — they rank first overall in Football Outsiders’ Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average. They’re first in run defense and second in pass defense.
Potash: Mack. He hasn’t been the unstoppable force he was in his first four games, but he gets a slight nod over Hicks. Even when he’s not a major factor, Mack still can make a difference with one play — like the third-and-eight sack that took the Giants out of field goal range in the fourth quarter. But if that game was the real Daniel, the Bears’ MVP is Trubisky by a mile.
Who makes the Pro Bowl?
Jahns: The Bears should have four on defense: Jackson, Fuller, Hicks and Mack. If Trubisky plays well over the final four games, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him go as a potential replacement, either. Quarterbacks with lesser numbers have appeared in the annual all-star game. Cohen also should go as a specialist.
Finley: Mack, Hicks, Jackson and Fuller should all be in. Cohen could make it as a kick returner, a clever way of rewarding a player without a true position. Nose tackle Eddie Goldman, cornerbacks Prince Amukamara and Bryce Callahan and inside linebacker Danny Trevathan have a case, too. Not bad for a franchise that didn’t have a defensive Pro Bowl player under Fox.
Potash: Mack, Hicks, Jackson, Fuller, Trevathan and Cohen.
The Bears’ final record is ….
Jahns: 10-6. A five-game improvement from last season would be more than a step in the right direction under Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace; it would be a sprint.
Finley: 10-6, with a first-place finish in the NFC North.
Potash:
10-6, assuming Trubisky returns. Good enough to win the North, the No. 3 seed in the NFC and a home game in the wild-card round of the playoffs.
FINLEY: THEY’VE PITCHED A SHUTOUT IN THE FOURTH ONLY ONCE, DURING THEIR WIN AGAINST THE CARDINALS. BLAMING GARBAGE TIME ONLY GOES SO FAR. THE BEARS BUILT A UNIT THAT CAN WIN PLAYOFF GAMES — BUT TO DO SO, IT HAS TO DOMINATE WHEN IT MATTERS MOST.
POTASH: NAGY HAS PUSHED MANY OF THE RIGHT BUTTONS TO KEEP HIS PLAYERS ENGAGED AND FOCUSED AND DEFENSES ON THEIR TOES. BUT WHEN THINGS WORK AS WELL AS THEY HAVE — AKIEM HICKS’ TOUCHDOWN, TARIK COHEN’S TOUCHDOWN PASS AGAINST THE GIANTS, FOR INSTANCE — YOU CAN GET CLOSER AND CLOSER TO GOING OVER THE LINE WHERE INVENTIVENESS BECOMES HAZARDOUS.