Axelrod analyzes strengths, weaknesses of mayoral field
Says Preckwinkle, Mendoza can make runoff but face base, petition concerns
Keep your eye on Amara Enyia, an “impressive” candidate with the power to excite notoriously indifferent millennials.
Susana Mendoza is a formidable candidate, but she may not overcome a petition challenge.
Toni Preckwinkle’s union endorsements make her a powerhouse. But she has “base problems” and temperament troubles. Bill Daley has “base issues,” too. Welcome to a handicapping of the Chicago mayoral sweepstakes, courtesy of David Axelrod.
The former Obama presidential adviser, now director and co-founder of the University of Chicago’s Institute of Politics, sat down with the Chicago Sun-Times to discuss the wide-open race to replace Mayor Rahm Emanuel.
Axelrod said he “got out of the prediction business” after he was blindsided by the election of President Donald Trump.
But if he had to predict who would make the runoff, it likely would be Preckwinkle and Mendoza, provided Mendoza can survive a “serious challenge” to her nominating petitions.
Preckwinkle has a base diminished by the black exodus from Chicago and competition from other black candidates, he said.
“Willie Wilson will get votes. Lori Lightfoot will get votes. Amara Enyia, if she’s on the ballot, is a very bright, engaged person. And as you look around the country, these young women of color have emerged as stars . . . I would watch her as a factor in this race,” Axelrod said.
“If you’re Preckwinkle, you have to look over your shoulder and not assume that you have an undivided base. What she does have that is not to be discounted is the endorsement of the Chicago Teachers Union, the endorsement of the SEIU, probably the two most powerful political forces in labor in the city.”
As a city resident, Axelrod said he can only hope the next mayor of Chicago is “someone who can govern the city.”
Preckwinkle sure falls into that category, having spent 19 years in the City Council and eight years as County Board president.
Still, Axelrod said he can’t understand why Preckwinkle even wants the job.
“There are clearly parts of it that she doesn’t love. And part of it is dealing with people like you” in the media, Axelrod said.
“The County Board presidency is sort of like a sleepy outpost. When you’re mayor, there’s a room full of people whose job it is to keep an eye on you throughout. You’re asked to comment on everything. You can’t duck anything. And she’s not particularly good at hiding her displeasure. That irascibility is something that can plague her in the campaign. And it can bedevil as mayor, if she gets elected.”
Axelrod was asked whether celebrity endorsements from Chance the Rapper and Kanye West will excite millennials, who flexed their political muscle in November.
“The history of mayoral races is that it hasn’t engaged young people in the city,” he said.
“Where she could benefit is from televised debates. [But] when you have a field so large, it’s difficult for anyone to really rise up in debates.”
Axelrod served as the political strategist for six of Richard M. Daley’s mayoral campaigns. He “likes and respects” Bill Daley and considers him a friend.
“He’s got a name that is a blessing and a curse. It gets him in the game. But he bears the burden of a long-term legacy that is positive, but also the sense of dynasty that trails him,” Axelrod said.
Axelrod said he’s not surprised Daley leads in fundraising, with $2.7 million and counting. Gery Chico is second at $1.54 million after a $400,000 money drop late Friday.
“There are a lot of people in the business community who trust him,” Axelrod said of Daley.
Still, Daley has “base issues,” with Garry McCarthy and Paul Vallas certain to carve into Daley’s votes in predominantly white Southwest and Northwest Side wards dominated by police officers, firefighters and other city workers.
Axelrod said Daley must convince Chicago voters his administration would be a break from the corruption scandals, contract cronyism and financial mismanagement of his brother’s administration.
“He clearly knows the city and loves the city. But whether people see Daley as the future — that’s what he has to address,” he said.
As for Emanuel, Axelrod’s longtime friend and colleague in the Obama White House, Axelrod said he “did the right thing” by calling it quits.
Axelrod believes Emanuel would have been re-elected. But it would have been a bloody battle and would have made it difficult for him to govern.
“He’ll be remembered more fondly because of the way he’s leaving,” Axelrod said. “People can look more objectively at his legacy.”