BETTER DAYS ARE AHEAD — HE SWEARS
Despite bears’ disappointing 3-4 record, nagy optimistic offense close to turning it around
Though naysayers continue to swarm, Nagy remains resolute that Bears’ offense is on the cusp of a comeback.
It’s getting dark around coach Matt Nagy as the Bears’ playoff chances get bleaker. To his credit, however, he’s such an optimist that he sees the low point of his head-coaching career as an opportunity. ‘‘I kind of enjoy it,’’ he said earnestly. ‘‘I don’t want to lose, but it’s, like: ‘Hey, let’s go. You’re gonna be at a point now where you’re gonna test us. Let’s roll. Let’s stick together. Let’s freaking go.’ ’’
He is undeterred and unwilling to concede the Bears are in shambles. The season has gone horribly off-track at 3-4 with a tough road game Sunday against the Eagles. But Nagy’s ‘‘earmuffs and horse blinders’’ mantra shields him from the thunder outside Halas Hall.
He likely doesn’t give much thought to the fact he has drained all credibility he earned with the fan base in his debut season. He incurred an overdraft fee on that account with his missteps at the end of the game against the Chargers. On one local radio show this week, the hosts spent a segment rehashing whether he had worthy credentials to get the job in the first place.
It’s harsh, but everything is fair game right now — especially when his side of the ball is a wreck. He was hired on his offensive pedigree and quarterback expertise, but the Bears rank 27th in scoring, 29th in total yardage and 29th in passing yardage.
When possible, Nagy likes to point to incremental, week-to-week improvement for Mitch Trubisky and the offense as a whole, but that wasn’t supposed to be the measurement for success this season.
This is a loaded roster with monumental ambition, and the idea was for the offense to continue building off what it did in its first season under Nagy. Instead, despite retaining the core personnel and adding a couple of new weapons, the Bears regressed and still haven’t caught up to where they were in 2018.
Their numbers are worse — drastically worse, in most cases — in every offensive category but turnovers. The total offense is down a startling 62.5 yards per game, and their third-down conversion success has dropped from 41 percent (11th) to 32.6 percent (26th).
But Nagy spent much of his news conference Monday noting the progress that led to the Bears putting up a season-high 388 yards in their 17-16 loss to the Chargers. It certainly was an upgrade from their performance against the Saints the week before, but five NFL teams are averaging more than that.
Because Nagy is always so upbeat, it can be difficult to tell the difference between what he really believes and what he wants to believe. But he genuinely seemed to think the offense is on the brink of bursting.
‘‘I do,’’ he said. ‘‘I feel that way . . . . You win [against the Chargers], and this stuff we’re talking about is a lot easier to talk about. I think we’re talking a lot more about the growth of the offense . . . but that became a big deal because we lost the game.’’
No. The offense’s many shortfalls are crippling this team. That’s a big deal because it’s a big deal, win or lose. Dropping a whopping 19 points on the Chargers at home wouldn’t have eased any concerns about whether the Bears can score enough points to give themselves a chance the rest of the way.
The offense has been underwhelming in the first 23 games under Nagy. In the last season and a half, the Bears are tied for 15th in points (23.9 per game), 25th in total yards (324.9), 18th in passer rating (91.9) and 28th in yard per rush (4.0).
Yardage-wise, they are a hair worse in total offense, passing and rushing — per game and per play in each category — than they were in three seasons under John Fox.
That doesn’t seem as though it could be true, does it? Not after all the fireworks the Bears provided while going 12-4 and winning the NFC North last season.
Tarik Cohen ran all over the league. The Bears sent defensive end Akiem Hicks into the end zone like ‘‘The Fridge.’’ They scored on a ‘‘Philly Special’’ with the game on the line. Nagy was a fount of creativity, and football was fun again in Chicago.
But all the sparks might have made the offense look better than it actually was. While the Bears ranked ninth in the NFL in points at 26.3, subtracting defensive touchdowns and drives that were already in fieldgoal range when they began them would lower that average to a more pedestrian 22.4.
Beyond that, they were 21st in total offense, including 11th in rushing and 21st in passing. If those numbers were skewed by the Bears frequently playing with leads, they averaged 7.3 yards per pass (17th), 4.1 per rush (26th) and 5.4 per play (20th).
Nagy did spur development in Trubisky, the No. 2 overall pick the year before he was hired, but there were misleading numbers with him, too. He threw six touchdown passes — a quarter of his season total — in Week 4 against the Buccaneers., who finished as the sixth-worst defense in the league.
Aside from that monster game, Trubisky posted an 89 passer rating in 13 games. He’s at 81.4 this season, which ranks 27th among the 33 quarterbacks with enough attempts to qualify. Marcus Mariota is 10 points higher and already lost his starting job with the Titans.
The downturn of the offense across the board suggests opposing defenses have cracked the code in Nagy’s second season. His only chance to steer the Bears out of this rut is to evolve, and he showed a willingness to do so against the Chargers.
One week after calling a franchise-low seven running plays, he shifted sharply and ran the ball 38 times — one shy of his careerhigh. He turned back time with the I-formation, using backup offensive tackle Cornelius Lucas as a blocking tight end and backup tight end J.P. Holtz as a fullback.
It was a throwback to the Stone Age of football. And it worked wonderfully.
David Montgomery looked more than comfortable in the formation, averaging 7.2 yards per carry from it and rolling up 135 yards overall. When the Chargers thought they had it pinned down in the third quarter, Nagy called a brilliantly crafted pass out of the I and watched Trubisky hit Allen Robinson for 31 yards.
There’s the magic.
And. more important, there’s the proof that Nagy has the flexibility to go against his pass-happy nature and find solutions. You couldn’t put it past him at this point to try the triple-option or the Wing-T.
While the early returns on his time running the Bears’ offense have been a letdown, he’s not done. That optimism, that refusal to concede anything about the rest of the season, is an invaluable asset as he continues mining his imagination for anything that can get the Bears rolling.
‘‘If we have to do different things, you obviously know I’m open to that, and I have a lot of faith and trust in our coaches and in our players,’’ he said. ‘‘We’re truly tested right now. We’ve been through a lot in the last couple of weeks. This is what we signed up for.’’ ✶