TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Two formulas show Cy Young Award race in each league is up in the air
The division of labor between starting pitchers and relievers has evolved. So have pitching metrics. That includes measures to project Cy Young Award winners. Voters have had to adapt to starters pitching fewer innings and having fewer victories, losses and strikeouts.
So who will win the Cy Young Awards when they’re announced this month?
The original Bill James formula designed to model voter behavior likes Justin Verlander by a narrow margin over Astros teammate Gerrit Cole in the American League and the Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg over the Dodgers’
Hyun-Jin Ryu in the
National League.
Tom Tango’s simplified Cy Young points, released to the public in 2013, rank Cole over Verlander and the Mets’ Jacob deGrom over Ryu, the Cardinals’ Jack Flaherty and Strasburg in extremely close races.
Both metrics have been strong in projecting Cy Young winners, with the James version more accurate before 2006 and Tango’s version performing better in more recent years.
Neither is designed to choose who
should win. Their task is to identify the likely choices of Baseball Writers’ Association of America voters. Here’s the way they work: James’ metric uses innings pitched, earned runs, strikeouts, saves, shutouts, wins, losses and a 12-point victory bonus for pitching on a division champion. The formula is ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB.
Verlander, who was 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA, allowed 64 earned runs in 223 innings, so the first part of the formula gives him 59.9 points. His 300 strikeouts divided by 12 are worth 25 points. He had no saves but does get a point for one shutout. Six times his 21 wins minus twice his six losses adds 114 points, and he gets the 12-point bonus.
That adds up to 211.9 points, a shade better than Cole’s 208.1 in a 20-5,
2.50 ERA season.
In the NL, Strasburg (18-6,
3.32 ERA) has 156.0 Cy Young points to edge Ryu (14-5, 2.32) at 155.1 and the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw at 152.8. Flaherty stands 11th at 130.3.
Tango’s version eliminates losses, shutouts and the victory bonus, and wins are given less weight. For starting pitchers, the formula is (IP/2 – ER) + K/10 + W. Relievers get two-thirds of their saves as points.
In the AL, Cole would get 47.2 points for his 212„ innings minus 59 earned runs, 32.6 for his 326 strikeouts and 20 for his wins. That gives him 99.8 points in the Tango metric, with Verlander right behind at 98.5.
In the NL, deGrom (11-8, 2.43) is the leader at 83.5 points, followed by Ryu at 74.6, Flaherty at 72.3 and Strasburg at 70.6.
DeGrom isn’t a viable candidate on the James metric with 129.6 points. But just like last year, when he won the award with 10 victories, he shows up better on the Tango method with its reduced emphasis on wins.
Even though they indicate different winners, both methods are telling us we have extremely close races. And regardless of the winner, the changes we’ve seen in pitcher usage will have an effect on the vote.