THE PAIN HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN
Hawks’ salary-cap problems likely to set up some agonizing choices by the offseason
LAS VEGAS — The worsening of forward Andrew Shaw’s concussion has moved the Blackhawks out of salary-cap purgatory for now. But the paralyzing cap crunch of the last couple of weeks was only a taste of the conundrum they’ll face next summer.
With Shaw’s placement on longterm injured reserve Monday, his $3.5 million cap hit is off the books until at least Dec. 27 — the first day he’ll be eligible to return — giving the Hawks plenty of money to work with in the meantime. They were able to recall defenseman Adam Boqvist and forward Matthew Highmore for this threegame road trip and actually had healthy scratches at both forward (Highmore) and defenseman (Slater Koekkoek) for Tuesday’s game against the Golden Knights.
Thus, the unfathomable reality of playing an entire game a man down — with so many injuries and so little cap space that an AHL recall was impossible — probably won’t happen again for the Hawks this season. Their loss to the Blues last week with just 17 skaters will remain the go-to example of how things can always get worse.
However, their tight cap situation isn’t going away, especially as the Hawks get closer to the Feb. 24 trade deadline and start looking ahead to next offseason.
Right now, they have roughly $70.1 million tied up in just 16 players for the 2020-21 season. If the salary cap rises by $2 million again (as it did this past summer), the Hawks would have $13.4 million to work with next summer, although Sportsnet recently reported there could be a larger cap increase — perhaps in the $4 million range.
Regardless, Hawks general manager Stan Bowman will have his work cut out for him.
Forward Dylan Strome will be a restricted free agent and presumably will ask for a salary approaching the $6.4 million that Alex DeBrincat will receive annually after his extension. Strome alone could eat up half the Hawks’ cap space.
Goalies Robin Lehner and Corey Crawford — who currently account for $6 million and $5 million cap hits, respectively — will both be unrestricted free agents, and the Hawks will almost certainly only have the room to keep one.
Defenseman Erik Gustafsson will also be an unrestricted free agent, and his asking price should well exceed what the Hawks can afford, thus making it likely he’ll be dealt in February if the Hawks aren’t in close playoff contention.
Koekkoek and wingers Dominik Kubalik and Drake Caggiula will be restricted free agents as well. Even if they aren’t retained, the Hawks will need to sign some depth pieces simply to fill out the roster.
All told, the Hawks face an exceedingly unfavorable financial situation for the coming offseason, and that’s with a team that likely will be coming off a third straight playoff miss. The Hawks’ odds of making the postseason entering Tuesday were 22.2 percent, per MoneyPuck — more than 30 percentage points lower than any of the other six Central Division teams.
At some point, Bowman will need to make a decision about his loyalty to the Hawks’ expensive, aging core. By summer 2021 and the Seattle expansion draft, the Hawks’ mass of no-trade clauses could cost them the ability to protect a key member of their planned future core.
That decision doesn’t seem imminent. For now, the Hawks will continue to operate just below the cap, hoping to scrape by for another week, another month, another season.
Last week, they were burned for their lack of leeway. Next summer, they could be toasted.