FOR STARTERS
Our experts predict which QB will start more games for Bears in 2020
The Sun-Times’ Patrick Finley, Jason Lieser and Mark Potash sort through some of the Bears’ biggest questions of the offseason:
The most notable thing to come out of the Bears’ schedule was . . .
Finley: They open against the Lions, then don’t play another NFC North opponent until Week 10. The Bears play five division games among their final seven contests. The NFC North race won’t start until the third Sunday in November.
Lieser: The shared bye with the Giants in Week 11. The NFL deliberately matched bye weeks for every matchup in Week 2, showing it is bracing for potential fallout from the opening week. On the plus side for the Bears, if everything stays on schedule, that’s an ideal time for a bye.
Potash: They again have a chance to get off to a fast start, with road games against the Lions and Falcons and home games against the Giants, Colts and Buccaneers in the first five weeks. All five opponents finished in the bottom half of the NFL in scoring defense in 2019. The Bears had a chance to start 5-0 last season (Packers, Broncos, Redskins, Vikings and Raiders) and went 3-2, which proved costly.
What will the Bears’ record be in 2020?
Finley: Whoever predicted the Bears to win three games all season was wrong; they might be 3-0 after opening against the Lions, Giants and Falcons, who combined to win 14 games last season. But the schedule gets harder from that point on, making 9-7 a likely finish.
Lieser: They’ll go 9-7, with a best-case scenario of 11-5 and the floor being 6-10. Expect a strong start (they open with the Lions, Giants and Falcons), then a rough patch, then a push to give themselves a chance at 7-5 going into the homestretch. They’ll catch a break if the Colts, Titans and Texans don’t turn out to be as good as most people think.
Potash: 9-7, but it’s difficult to predict the Bears’ record until you see what coach Matt Nagy’s offense looks like in a real game. The uncertainty of the 2020 season because of the COVID-19 pandemic — from limited offseason workouts to a potentially abbreviated preseason to potentially playing games in empty stadiums — increases the difficulty of predicting a team such as the Bears.
Which game would you most hate to see canceled?
Finley: Any game after the league has begun play. Having to pause the season after beginning it would be much more damaging — psychologically and practically — than merely delaying its start.
Lieser: The finale at home
against the Packers. Any game between these teams is can’t-miss. There are some compelling matchups outside the division for the Bears, but nothing beats this rivalry.
Potash: The Buccaneers on ‘‘Thursday Night Football’’ on Oct. 8 at Soldier Field. Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Mike Evans, et al., against the Bears’ defense will be a must-see event. Brady is 5-0 against the Bears in his career.
Who will start more games, Nick Foles or Mitch Trubisky?
Finley: Trubisky, which goes against history. Of the eight other first-round quarterbacks to have their fifth-year options declined, no one still playing for the team that drafted him was a regular starter in Year 5. Despite his postseason heroics, however, Foles hasn’t proved to be a steady regular-season quarterback. He has started more than half his team’s games in only one of the last six seasons.
Lieser: Foles. Not only is he a slight favorite to outperform Trubisky, but the Bears need him to be their answer. The soonest they can give their next prospective franchise quarterback a shot is probably the 2022 opener, so it would be ideal for Foles to be the bridge this season and next. And if he wins the job, he will get a very favorable start to the season.
Potash: Trubisky. Though Foles has better credentials, he has had his Trubiskylike moments in his career. He’s no sure thing, especially in an undeveloped offense. Unless Foles wins decisively, Trubisky is likely to get the nod in the opener. And the early schedule gives the winner a great chance to keep the job.
At which position do the Bears still need help?
Finley: Quarterback is the biggest organizational concern until someone proves otherwise. The Bears’ 2020 starter will have to win the job during the preseason, and their 2021 starter might not even be on the roster. Quarterback answers won’t be available until March. Sorry, Cam Newton fans.
Lieser: Cornerback. They certainly will be on the lookout for a quality veteran to shake loose before the season starts. Their best hope at the moment is second-round pick Jaylon Johnson being NFL-ready from the jump, but it’s hard to plan on that. The other competitors are former Steelers first-rounder Artie Burns (played only 6% of his team’s defensive snaps last season) and Kevin Toliver (two career starts).
Potash: Wide receiver. The Bears have a bunch of question marks behind Allen Robinson. Anthony Miller is the top candidate to break out. Ted Ginn is a proven player, but he’s also 35. Draft picks Riley Ridley, Javon Wims and rookie Darnell Mooney are candidates to become productive threats in a mature offense. But the Bears aren’t there yet.
Which non-quarterback is under the most pressure this season?
Finley: Robinson — unless the Bears pay him soon. Before the season starts, the Bears will try to negotiate a contract extension to pay Robinson like one of the best eight or so receivers in the game. If they can’t get it done, however, Robinson will enter the last season of his contract with the potential to make himself richer than any Bears player this side of Khalil Mack — or he’ll get franchise-tagged for 2021.
Lieser: Mack. Last season was far from his standards, as he finished with his lowest sack total (8.5) since being a rookie. He had multiple games with little or nothing on the stat sheet. While there are valid explanations for that, such as the absence of Akiem Hicks and the ineffectiveness of Leonard Floyd, there were whispers about whether Mack was worth his enormous contract. He’ll be driven to snap back.
Potash: Left tackle Charles Leno. He struggled with penalties, and his overall effectiveness dipped in 2019 after making the Pro Bowl as an alternate in 2018. At 28 (he turns 29 on Oct. 9), he needs to reestablish himself as the anchor the Bears rewarded with a four-year, $37 million extension ($21.5 million guaranteed) before the 2017 season.
Who will win the NFC North?
Finley: The Packers won 13 games and finished as NFC runners-up last season despite having a point differential of only plus-63. They’ll be a trendy pick to regress, but give me a motivated Aaron Rodgers and a franchise that has won the division in six of the last 10 seasons.
Lieser: The Vikings. They have the best record in the division — and the fifth-best in the NFL — in the last five seasons and have been hovering just outside the top tier in the league. They had a top-five defense last season, but their downfall was an 0-4 performance against the Bears and Packers. This is the season they finally will break through.
Potash: The Packers. They inadvertently lit a fire under Rodgers by drafting his heir apparent, Jordan Love, in the first round, and a motivated, focused Rodgers often is a good bet. The Vikings will be right there, but their new-look defense might be better or worse. The Bears will be a contender — maybe the favorite — if their offense clicks, but that’s a huge X-factor. The Lions have a lot to prove.
LIESER: NOT ONLY IS [FOLES] A SLIGHT FAVORITE TO OUTPERFORM TRUBISKY, BUT THE BEARS NEED HIM TO BE THEIR ANSWER.
POTASH: UNLESS FOLES WINS DECISIVELY, TRUBISKY IS LIKELY TO GET THE NOD IN THE OPENER. AND THE EARLY SCHEDULE GIVES THE WINNER A GREAT CHANCE TO KEEP THE JOB.