CONTENDERS UNDER THESE CONDITIONS
TOGO FROM A SERIOUSLY UGLY 4-1 TO A SERIOUS PLAYOFF TEAM, BEARS WILL NEED SUCCESS, LUCK OR BOTH IN FIVE AREAS
The Bears’ surprising 4-1 start has them several steps down the road toward the playoffs already. Although Week 6 feels awfully early to punch their ticket, they probably could go 5-6 the rest of the season and still get there. That’s actually exactly how they finished last season— 5-6 — and if that team could do it, so can this one. Barring a total implosion, which is unlikely considering how good their defense is, the Bears should be able to find at least five or six more victories to reach the postseason.
They certainly haven’t looked like a team that wins 80% of its games, and all of their four wins could have easily flipped the other way. Any team that plays the way they have — mainly on offense — wouldn’t be shocked to be 0-5, but here they are with the gift of a 4-1 record.
“That’s exactly right: For us to be 4-1 and play the way we’re playing offensively ... they’re not pretty [victories],” coach Matt Nagy said. “Where you stay excited is that you are 4-1, because in the end that’s what matters. You want it to look better. That’s what we’re working toward right now, and that’s what we’ve got to get to as soon as we can.”
Another win Sunday at Carolina would give the Bears their best start since 2012, and 83% of 5-1 teams over the last three decades went on to make the playoffs. (Unfortunately for the Bears, their 2012 crew did not, but they would have if there had been seven spots in each conference, as there are this season.)
These Bears would tell you they aren’t content to be just another playoff team sitting there to be conquered by NFC heavyweights. They aspire to be a real contender.
Is that realistic? It is if these five things go their way:
Clobber inferior teams
The Bears could make a significant statement about where they’re headed by making Sunday’s game an open-and-shut case. Serious teams thump opponents like the Panthers, who are 3-2 but haven’t beaten anyone good.
Take a look at some of the other tackling dummies lined up for them later this season:
the Vikings (1-4) twice, the Lions (1-3), the Texans (1-4) and the Jaguars (1-4). Beating the Panthers and taking four of those five is all it would take to finish with a winning record.
That’s only the baseline, though. Any mediocre NFL team can pound away on the lightweights. The next step for the Bears to prove their legitimacy is to trade punches with the Rams, Saints and Titans, their next three opponents after playing the Panthers.
Foles gets rolling
Every team that has counted onNick Foles at quarterback has been in for a wild ride. He can run the spectrum frombest player on the
field — as he was during the Eagles’ championship run and when leading the Bears’ comeback against the Falcons in his debut— to totally ineffective.
That’s going to be a hardway to live for the Bears. There are signs, however, that Foles is leveling off. His completion percentage has gone up from 55% to 71%, and this week was his first real chance to settle in as the starter.
The Bears aren’t asking him to be the MVP. What they need is something along the lines of what he gave the Eagles over 18 games, including the playoffs, in 2017-18: 67% completions, 21 touchdowns to 11 interceptions and a 93.1 passer rating.
Feast on takeaways
What was the difference between the very good Bears defense of 2019 and the exceptional, championship-level defense of the season before? Takeaways.
The 2018 Bears led the NFL with 36 takeaways, the most since the 2015Panthers, and a big reason for it was that they were also third in the NFL with 50 sacks. They had barely more than half that takeaway total (19) last season. They also dipped from 100 quarterback hits to 79.
The current version of the defense is somewhere in between. Realistically, that won’t be sufficient to overcome the offense’s shortfalls. The upside is that the combination of linebackers Robert Quinn and Khalil Mack and defensive tackle Akiem Hicks looked like it was starting to click in the win over the Buccaneers. A more ferocious pass rush will bring more takeaways.
Find a runNING game
Nagy seems to enjoy talking about having a running game more than actually having a running game. That needs to change.
It needed to change a year ago, but the Bears still rank 27th in the NFL in yards per game and 16th in yards per carry. They’re at 2.1 yards per carry over the last two games. They also have thrown the fourth-most passes in the NFL, which isn’t the smartest idea considering who their quarterbacks are.
Curiously, the Bears appeared to have little or no interest in running back Le’Veon Bell, a two-time All-Pro who was cut by the Jets this week and signed with the Chiefs.
Bell is the type of dual threat the Bears lost when Tarik Cohen tore his anterior cruciate ligament, and DavidMontgomery hasn’t been able to add that to his job description.
What chance has Montgomery had, though, with just 10 carries in each of the last two games? In 17 of his 21 career games, he has had fewer than 20 rushes. Nagy needs to stay patient and give him more consistent opportunities to show he can be the dependable primary back the Bears drafted him to be.
Competition stumbles
Where, exactly, are all the giants of the NFC? As of now, it looks like it’s just the Packers at 4-0 and the Seahawks at 5-0. Everyone else is just OK.
A world of “just OK” teams is a world where the Bears can make something happen. The Saints are 3-2 after an overtime escape, and the Bears just knocked the Buccaneers to 3-2. The Vikings are a disaster. The entire NFC East is rotten — and how seriously should anyone take the 4-1 Rams when all four of their wins came against that division?
There’s an opening for one of those second-tier teams to move up in weight class. And, more than anything any of their peers have, the Bears’ defense has the potential to vault them there.
If the defense accelerates from good to great and Nagy somewhat straightens out his offense, the Bears can get back to being what they were in his first season: a flawed but dangerous team.