LIONS, PACK STILL AHEAD
BEARS GM POLES HASN’T DONE ENOUGH THIS OFFSEASON TO VAULT HIS TEAM OVER THOSE TWO NFC NORTH RIVALS
For a team stuck at the bottom of its division the last two seasons, the Bears didn’t do much in the first wave of free agency to improve their chances of contending in the NFC North. They still have a massive opportunity in the draft with the Nos. 1 and 9 picks, but for now, the best thing that happened for them this week was Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins leaving for the Falcons.
Cousins has plenty of haters, certainly, but the fact is he put up a 101.2 passer rating for the Vikes over the last six seasons, and they had the 11thbest record in the NFL in that span at 66-48-1. He went 6-4 against the Bears with 15 touchdown passes, six interceptions and a 95.6 passer rating.
And if the Bears are being really optimistic, they can hope that Cousins’ departure, as well as that of top pass rusher Danielle Hunter, will set off a full-scale rebuild for the Vikings. Hey, maybe they’ll even trade star wide receiver Justin Jefferson.
The Vikings also made an intriguing move Friday by trading draft picks with the Texans. They gave up a second-round pick and a sixth this year, plus a second-rounder next year, for the Texans’ first-round pick at No. 23 and a seventh. Now armed with two first-rounders (the other is No. 11), the Vikings could make an aggressive trade to get within reach of one of the top quarterbacks in the draft.
Even if the Vikings do a full reset, of course, the Bears still have to deal with the Lions and Packers atop the division. Both were in the playoffs last season — the Lions nearly made the Super Bowl — and remain well ahead of the Bears in several key aspects.
Despite having a wealth of salary-cap space, Bears general manager Ryan Poles
didn’t make any moves that would vault his team ahead of those two.
His splashiest signings were running back D’Andre Swift and safety Kevin Byard on budget-friendly deals. Swift signed for $24 million over three years, while Byard got $15 million over two. Both are quality players who likely will be starters this season, but neither figures to be a game-changer. Poles also added wide receiver Keenan Allen on Thursday in a trade with the Chargers.
He steered clear of the massive costs on top free agents at positions of need like exDolphins defensive tackle Christian Wilkins (four years, $110 million from the Raiders), former Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley (four years, $92 million from the Titans) and ex-Texans defensive end Jonathan Greenard (four years, $72 million from the Vikings).
The only player Poles dropped big money on was star cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who got a four-year, $76 million contract extension. He also could indirectly count defensive end
Montez Sweat, for whom he traded a secondround pick last year and signed to a four-year, $98 million extension that makes him the highest-paid player on the roster this season.
But the Bears still must add to give themselves a chance, and they went into the offseason with significant needs at four premium positions: quarterback, defensive end, wide receiver and offensive tackle. Poles has major firepower with the first and ninth picks in the draft, but that’ll still leave some question marks on the roster.
When pressed at the NFL Scouting Combine last month on whether the Bears finally would be ready to contend in 2024, coach Matt Eberflus made no promises or declarations.
“We’re in the process of building that team right now, so we have a lot of work to do between now and [training camp],” he said. “I see it as a natural progression to our building of this franchise, and we’re excited about that.”
Those vague answers wear thinner the longer the rebuild takes. They were perfectly understandable in ’22, when Poles and Eberflus were starting to sweep out the mess Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy left them, but wins and playoff success are the only currency now.
Meanwhile, the reigning NFC North champion Lions also barely did a thing in free agency, but why would they? They went
12-5 to win the North last season, their team still is relatively young, they have a long-term quarterback in Jared Goff, their salary-cap situation is fine and they’ve got a pick in each of the first three rounds at Nos. 29, 61 and 71.
The Lions should be basically the same team as they were last season, which is a good thing for them.
The Packers were the most active team in the division and seized on what they believe is an upgrade by signing ex-Raiders running back Josh Jacobs for $48 million over four years, making him the fifth-highest-paid player at his position, and cutting Aaron Jones. The Vikings quickly scooped up Jones.
The Packers are an example of how different roster-building is when the quarterback question is answered. They’ve got a difference-maker in Jordan Love, so now the task each offseason is to surround him with as much talent as they can afford and try to put together a viable defense.
It’s the same game the Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens and others play, and it’s a lot different than what the Bears have been doing and will continue to do: try to get the other 21 starting spots perfect, and hope that’s enough for Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles, Andy Dalton or Justin Fields to thrive.
If Poles uses that top pick on USC star Caleb
Williams and if he lives up to everyone’s projections, that would change everything about how the Bears approach free agency. And if he’s good right away, it opens an incredible opportunity to stack the roster during his cheap rookie contract.
The Packers typically aren’t big spenders in free agency, but in addition to Jacobs, they dropped $67 million over four years for former Giants safety Xavier McKinney.
They went 9-8 and won a playoff game last season, Love’s first as a starter, and that was with Love struggling through the first nine games. They expect he’ll continue on the late-season trajectory that saw him finish second in the NFL in touchdown passes and are loading up with the anticipation of challenging the Lions for the division.
Like the Lions, they’ve done all that while maintaining a good salary-cap situation and draft capital. They have five picks in the first three rounds next month.
That always has been one of the looming challenges of Poles’ rebuild, which is now in Year 3. He can get a lot of things right, but the Lions and Packers aren’t simply going to yield to the Bears. They’re trying to stay at least one step ahead of them, and, even in an offseason when the Bears had tons of money available, they still are.