AGAINST ALL ODDS
Pro handicapper, LIFELONG BEARS FAN SAYS TEAM SHOULD keep fields and TRADE NO. 1 PICK to get haul
LAS VEGAS — The Bears failing to deal the top pick in the upcoming NFL Draft might be akin to the Angels whiffing last summer by not peddling superstar Shohei Ohtani for an abundance of talent in return. Instead, the lefty slugger strolled across town and signed with the Dodgers for a devilish $700 million, leaving gape-mouthed Angels in his wake.
However, New York resident, lifelong Bears fan and professional handicapper Tom Barton compares the Bears’ options to the Mets’ failure to move shortstop Jose Reyes in 2011.
Working at a New York radio station, Barton was certain the pre-Steve Cohen franchise would not re-sign Reyes after the season; the free-agent shortstop went to the Marlins.
“[Teams offered] their top two minor-league players, and the Mets held on to him,” Barton said. “Amazing. I was screaming, ‘What are you doing!?’ What the Angels could have gotten for Ohtani last summer! My goodness.”
The current DraftKings odds on the Bears picking USC quarterback Caleb Williams first is -900 (risk $900 to win $100), or a theoretical 90%. The draft begins April 25 in Detroit.
Do the Bears keep fourth-year quarterback Justin Fields, 10-28 in his career, draft Williams and watch them joust for the starter’s role in camp? Do they deal one, keep the other? Who stays, who goes?
“I think Fields is gone, and I think it’s a mistake because of what they could get for the No. 1 pick,” Barton said. “I don’t like Caleb Williams, from an X’s and O’s perspective,
as well as a personality perspective, but this isn’t about that.
“For me, it’s about the haul they could get for that pick. It could be a Herschel Walker or Russell Wilson type of trade, if you do things the right way. My goodness, this is how you build dynasties.”
BUSINESS DECISION
I tapped four other sources, with deep Chicagoland roots who are sports-betting experts, about Fields’ status with the franchise. I inquired: Will Fields be on the Bears’ roster at the end of the draft?
Two said yes, the other two no.
Todd Fuhrman, co-founder of the popular “Bet the Board” podcast and a CBS Sports HQ and NHL “Puckline” analyst, answered in the affirmative, with a caveat.
“You asked ‘draft,’ not about the season,” he said. “I think he could be moved closer to the start of the season. Look across the current landscape, and there aren’t a lot of [quarterback] openings across the league.”
Wilson signing with the Steelers and Kirk Cousins landing with the Falcons closed two. The Vikings obtained Sam Darnold, and the Raiders got Gardner Minshew.
Pro ’capper Chuck Edel provided the other Yes.
“Three weeks ago, I felt it was a lock that Fields would be traded,” he said. “Now that the Bears are realizing his trade value is less than they thought, we might see Caleb Williams and Fields on the roster.”
Edel figured that his forecast is a long shot, but he reasoned that Fields’ relatively low cost — reportedly $3.6 million in total cap space — gives him value.
The two noes were provided by Matt Youmans, the senior writer/broadcaster for the Vegas Sports & Information Network, and New England Sports Network betting analyst Sam Panayotovich.
“Quarterback competition debates create a fan and media circus and become a major distraction,” Youmans said. “The Bears need to draft a quarterback and move on. With so many teams desperate for QB depth, a trade for Fields will eventually happen.”
Panayotovich knows the locker room favors Fields.
“But this is a business decision to move on,” he said. “There’s nothing more valuable in the NFL than restarting the clock with a rookie quarterback’s contract. Bye-bye.”
HISTORIC HAUL?
If Barton owns the deciding vote, look for Fields to be on another roster after the draft. The Long Island ’capper believes Fields might even be dealt during the first round.
The Bears, via Carolina, have the top pick and No. 9. The Raiders have the 13th and own the 12th selection of the second round. Barton detailed a scenario in which the Raiders nab a receiver, say, at 13, then go after Fields.
“They better, but I’m unsure right now,” Barton said. “The market seems so dried up. I do think the Bears could get a historic deal, three firsts being the starting point.”
He added, as others did, that Williams constitutes an element of job security for Bears general manager Ryan Poles and coach Matt Eberflus.
Barton added, “So you’re buying time. People forget, often these people are just trying to hold on to a job.”
On Tuesday, the Westgate SuperBook had 60-to-1 odds on Fields being next season’s NFL MVP, 16th on a list of 100 candidates, with Williams at 100-1.
About two weeks ago, four sportsbooks removed their odds on where Fields will play in 2024. At one point, it was -425 for Atlanta, who acquired Cousins. Las Vegas was +650, Denver and the Giants 14-1. The Bears were +275.
Barton laughed at that last figure and said he believes it’s already done, that the Bears take Williams first to trigger other dominoes. He became Barton the Bears fan.
“I’ve never hoped I’m wrong so much,” he said. “But with three first-round picks, maybe even a second, I’d feel more secure than banking on some guy who paints obscenities on his fingernails and cries in his mom’s arms.” ✶