where have cubs’ stolen bases gone?
It might be case of small sample size, but team entered friday with only two steals
SEATTLE — An interesting pattern has played out on the bases for the Cubs so far. They’ve been able to get on base and score, but they had stolen only two bases — the fewest in the majors — entering a threegame series Friday against the Mariners.
How much of that is because of a small sample size as opposed to a team philosophy?
‘‘Stolen bases, they’re opportunistic,’’ manager Craig Counsell said this week. ‘‘You can’t force them. You take them when you can get them. We have a player who stole a lot of bases last year. It’s just [that] you’ve got to wait for the right opportunities.’’
That player is second baseman Nico Hoerner, who stole 43 bases in 2023, accounting for almost a third of the Cubs’ total of 140. He entered the game Friday without a stolen base this season, but don’t expect that to hold.
‘‘For myself personally and for the group in general, we want to take bases,’’ Hoerner told the Sun-Times. ‘‘But we also obviously want to be smart. And forcing the cause just to get stolen-base numbers doesn’t really help anything. It’s about scoring runs.’’
Hoerner had nine stolen bases in his first 15 games last season, then it took 53 more for him to add another nine. That’s just how baserunning plays out sometimes.
Hoerner also led off consistently for the first two months of last season. So if he got on base in his first at-bat, he had an open base in front of him. That was only a guarantee the first time through the order, but those situations add up.
He has led off twice this season but more often has hit seventh in the order. And he has had first baseman Michael Busch, who entered play Friday with a .364 on-base percentage, hitting in front of him.
‘‘Personally I’ve, just by coincidence, had a runner ahead of me a lot when I’m on base,’’ Hoerner said. ‘‘Or I’m on second with two outs or I’m on base and [left fielder] Ian [Happ is] up, and I just had a good feeling about his at-bat. So many factors that go into that.’’
Those are all good problems to have. Through Thursday, the Cubs had scored 73 runs. That was tied with the Braves for fourth in the majors, trailing only the Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks, who had played more games.
‘‘I bet there’s some stretches of this year where we take a bunch of bags,’’ Hoerner said. ‘‘But so far I don’t think it’s been passive. It’s more just like we haven’t had things line up yet.’’
The Cubs have done a good job of taking advantage of opponents’ defensive mistakes. On Opening Day in Texas, Busch scored on what was called a passed ball as Rangers catcher Jonah Heim argued that it had been fouled off. And Christopher Morel managed a three-run ‘‘Little League homer’’ against the Rockies in the home opener at Wrigley Field. Those aren’t the marks of a passive team.
At this time of the season, statistical anomalies sometimes simply can be attributed to a small sample. Look at Hoerner’s offensive performance overall. He entered play Friday with a .167 batting average but had a .362 on-base percentage.
‘‘If you look at the expected stuff, it’s actually better than last year,’’ Counsell said. ‘‘So the batting average doesn’t look good, but he’s actually, in a lot of ways, having a better offensive season than he did last year. He’s walking at a higher rate, and the batted-ball stuff has just been unlucky so far.’’
Hoerner had a .345 expected weighted onbase average as of Friday, according to Statcast, compared to .311 last season. So if he keeps doing what he’s doing at the plate, the hits eventually should start falling.