It always starts with No. 12
The Bears open the season Sunday with a prime-time test against the Packers at Lambeau Field. As kickoff closes in, here are three keys to keep tabs on as the Bears attempt to win their opener for the first time since 2013. Circle back after the game for a review.
Fluster
Aaron Rodgers Pregame analysis: Simple, right? Just find a way to rattle a two-time MVP who has a career rating of 107.2 against the Bears in regular-season games. Rodgers has been particularly special at Lambeau Field in the rivalry, posting a record of 8-1 there in games against the Bears that he has both started and finished. In those games, he has completed 66.6 percent of his passes and has a 24-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But what about that one loss, that 17-13 Bears victory on Thanksgiving three years ago? Several key components sparked that upset. A timely turnover (Tracy Porter picked Rodgers off late in the fourth quarter with the Bears protecting a four-point lead). The elimination of big plays (Rodgers attempted 43 passes that night with only four resulting in a gain of 15 yards or longer). An ability to get off the field on third down (The Packers were 3-for-11). The Bears may have to check all three boxes to win.
Find the soft spots Pregame analysis: New coach Matt Nagy has been praised for his offensive vision and ability to create favorable matchups for his playmakers. Now it’s time to see Nagy’s play-calling talents in action. The Packers may prove particularly vulnerable over the middle. Inside linebacker Blake Martinez is solid but not special. Fellow starter Oren Burks is battling a shoulder issue and may be limited if he plays. Martinez, Burks and Antonio Morrison could have a difficult time if forced to chase Trey Burton and Tarik Cohen in coverage frequently. The Packers will also need to use rookie defensive backs Josh Jackson and Jaire Alexander in certain packages and it’ll be worth testing the newcomers when the opportunity arises. Both players have an aggressive mentality but could be susceptible to big plays.
Big-time players, big-time plays Pregame analysis: Edge rusher Leonard Floyd will play with a club on his fractured right hand. Rookie Roquan Smith hasn’t been in game action since last winter’s college football national championship game. Khalil Mack has had barely a week to get comfortable in the Bears defense. It may be a month or longer before the Bears’ three most talented defensive players are operating at full strength and in sync. Still, that doesn’t mean Floyd, Smith and Mack can’t win a game for the Bears. All three were drafted in the top 10. All three have game-wrecking ability. Realistically, the Bears will need a handful of defensive splash plays to legitimize their upset bid. And Floyd, Smith and Mack must push to make them. It’s reasonable to expect defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to at least deploy one of the NFL’s best pass rushers in that capacity. Just line him up against however many blockers the Packers use against him, and tell him to go tackle No. 12. In the context of situational playing time, that probably means Mack could rush the passer on third-and-long, in the nickel and/or in end-ofhalf hurry-up situations. His explosive get-off and prowess turning speed into power outweighs whether he has mastered the playbook. The Mack we see Sunday night at Lambeau Field won’t be the one we see in mid-October and beyond. It’s going to take a while for the outside linebacker to get his football conditioning to 100 percent. It’s going to take a while for him to feel fully comfortable in his new defense. It’s going to take a while for him to produce at an All-Pro level week after week. Still, Mack at 80 percent of his potential will provide a huge boost to the Bears. His elite athleticism and high motor will be evident right away. And his ability to make gamechanging plays will elevate an already solid defense fairly quickly.
— Dan Wiederer