Taking closer look
Shorter series could give Kane, Hawks better chance against Oilers
With a plus-130 line at several sports books, the Blackhawks aren’t the worst bet to advance past the NHL play-in round. That would be the Canadiens, a fellow 12th seed, at plus-170.
If the league’s return-to-play plan goes on without a hitch, the fifth-seeded Oilers will be heavy favorites (minus-150), but they won’t take the Hawks lightly.
Remember that it was out of concern about facing stars such as the Hawks’ Patrick Kane and Canadiens goalie Carey Price that players and team executives nixed the idea of a three-game series in favor of a five-game format, according to “Hockey Night in Canada” analyst Elliotte Friedman.
Friedman said late last month, before the league and union settled on a playoff plan, “I did hear the Western teams, and now I hear that it’s going to be Edmonton, they were like, ‘Two out of three with Patrick Kane? I mean, c’mon.’ ”
Experience and three Stanley Cup titles must count for something, if not betting odds.
Here’s a look at seven key areas in the Blackhawks-Oilers series and how they apply to each team.
1. Forwards
Blackhawks: As strong as the Oilers forwards are, they have reason to worry about Kane. He had two goals and two assists in three meetings this season and has put up at least three points in three games against the Oilers since 2015-16.
The Kane-Dominik Kubalik-Jonathan Toews line produced the most goals (15) for the Hawks this season, followed by the Kane-Alex DeBrincat-Dylan Strome combination (11), according to Left Wing Lock. Kane was 12th in the league with 33 goals and eighth with 84 points.
In the last meeting with the Oilers, a 4-3 Hawks win on March 5 at the United Center, Kane and Toews scored a goal apiece and DeBrincat scored twice.
After the game, Kane talked about the Hawks’ playoff hopes despite then-long odds.
“Yeah, absolutely. It’s fun,” he said. “These are big games for us. … Obviously, they are a team with a lot of talent and a lot of skill and they can capitalize and create offense pretty quickly, which they did.
“We held down the fort at the end and did a good job. It feels good to get the two points and move on and keep this thing rolling.”
Oilers: Forwards accounted for 90.1% of the Oilers’ goals this season (fourth in the league), 73% of their assists (third) and 79.3% of their points (first).
So the Hawks just have to stop their forwards, right? Easier said than done.
That group racked up 201 goals — only three teams’ forwards groups produced more.
Leon Draisaitl won the Art Ross Trophy by leading the league with 110 points (43 goals, 67 assists), and teammate Connor McDavid was the runner-up with 97 points (34, 63). Draisaitl had a league-high 33 multipoint games.
2. Defensemen
Blackhawks: The story of the defensive zone could hinge on health. Losing Calvin de Haan (shoulder) and Brent Seabrook (hip) dealt the Hawks a blow, but there’s a chance they could get de Haan back.
In late May, de Haan retweeted video of himself practicing at Minto Skating Centre in Ottawa.
De Haan’s return would help make up for the loss of Erik Gustafsson (via trade) and shore up a defense led by Duncan Keith, Connor Murphy, Slater Koekkoek and Olli Maatta. Adam Boqvist missed the last game of the regular season with a concussion.
Oilers: Oscar Klefbom, Kris Russell and Adam Larsson are among the defensemen who recovered from injuries that landed them on IR at various points in the season. Klefbom returned in early March.
Mike Green was also on track to return from a sprained MCL before what would have been the end of the regular season before the coronavirus shutdown. He was acquired from the Detroit Red Wings at the trade deadline but has played only two games for the Oilers. One of Green’s greatest assets is as a power-play quarterback.
3. Goaltenders
Blackhawks: Corey Crawford had a 2.77 goals-against average this season and a .917 save percentage, which ranked 21st. Against the Oilers, he had a 2.01 GAA and .923 save percentage.
The 35-year-old will have to handle the load without Robin Lehner, who was traded to the Golden Knights on Feb. 24.
Crawford faced about 32 shots per game with a .915 save percentage when he was splitting time with Lehner, then about 33 per game with a .921 save percentage in eight games without Lehner.
The Hawks have Malcolm Subban and Collin Delia as likely backups, but they lack experience. Kevin Lankinen had shoulder surgery in March. Oilers: Whom do the Oilers trust: The 38-year-old veteran, Mike Smith, who’s playoff-tested, or Mikko Koskinen, 31, who at first blush appears to be the better goalie but has struggled with consistency? They split games fairly evenly.
Smith had a 2.95 GAA and .902 save percentage (3.56 and .906 against the Hawks). Koskinen was limited to mop-up duty against the Hawks on March 5 after Smith gave up four goals.
Here’s what’s more telling: In goalsagainst percentage, in which 100 represents the league average and a number lower than that is better, Smith is at 108 and Koskinen 91.
If you look at goals saved above average, the difference is even more stark: 9.25 for Koskinen and minus-7.71 for Smith.
4. Power play
Blackhawks: At one time fielding the NHL’s worst power play, the Hawks improved marginally to rank 28th by season’s end at 15.2%. However, the Hawks (217) had 17 more power-play opportunities than the Oilers, so if they can get that unit corrected, it becomes less of a disadvantage.
DeBrincat led the Hawks with 10 powerplay goals, tied for 18th in the league; he tied for 10th the previous season with 13 goals. Despite the Hawks ranking 10th in total time with a man advantage (363 minutes, 30 seconds), they took only the 16th-most shots (312) and were 23rd in goals (33).
Kirby Dach’s promotion to the top unit in place of Strome helped. The bigger-bodied Dach had about 33 minutes with DeBrincat and Toews and produced a Corsi For of 91.7% and a high-danger-goals-for percentage of 92.9%; with Strome, the DeBrincatToews unit had 84.2% and 50% marks, respectively, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Before the last game of the season, a 6-2 win against the Sharks that included two power-play goals, Kane said: “It’s disappointing that we don’t have a good power play. I don’t see why we shouldn’t.”
Oilers: The Oilers’ 29.5% power-play success rate led the league. Draisaitl was second in power-play goals with 16, and James Neal tied for sixth with 12.
“We’ve had that same power play for probably two years now, and that helps a lot,” McDavid told the CBC. “We’ll probably need to be a little bit better five-on-five.”
While Neal scored twice as many powerplay goals as Alex Chiasson’s six, Chiasson arguably made the overall unit better. With Chiasson, the Oilers had an expected goals-for percentage of 89.8% in about 101 minutes with McDavid and Draisaitl, according to Natural Stat Trick. Neal, McDavid and Draisaitl had a 72%. mark
5. Penalty kill
Blackhawks: Give the Hawks credit. They set out to improve on last season’s 72.7% kill rate — the worst in 30 years — and they did it. If at least one thing went right in 2019-20, it was the ninth-ranked penalty kill (82.1%).
Ryan Carpenter jump-started this unit, trailing only Keith in short-handed time on ice with 166 minutes, 6 seconds. Murphy and David Kampf contributed too. And de Haan, whose season was cut short by a shoulder injury, averaged the third-most ice time (2:41).
Toews is still a wiz at the faceoff, winning 56% in short-handed situations.
Oilers: Klefbom contributes everywhere for the Oilers, including leading them in average short-handed ice time (2:29).
Riley Sheahan isn’t far behind and does the heavy lifting on faceoffs, though his 41% success rate on the penalty kill pales next to his 51% overall mark, second-best on the team (minimum 100 faceoffs).
“I’ve really been working on (draws) in practice and mentally tried to bear down more,” Sheahan told the Edmonton Sun in February. “It’s so important on the penalty kill and D-zone. Just tried to do a little more homework.”