Air in their ways? Falcons’ secondary might tempt Nagy to call more passes
Chicago Bears coach Matt Nagy’s approach to Sunday’s game against an Atlanta Falcons team that has been shredded through the air for two games will be interesting for a number of reasons.
But the biggest question concerns his philosophy on offense: Does the coach stick with what has been a clear objective to run the ball more in an effort to establish an identity and play to the strengths of his roster? Or does he consider howthe Falcons secondary has been carved up and have visions of Mitch Trubisky’s six-touchdown game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2018?
The Falcons have been miserable defending the pass in losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys. Those efforts have them at 0-2 after a 1-7 start to last season. Opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 124.7— a perfect rating is 158.3— theworst in the NFL. The Falcons are allowing a stunning 77.4% of passes to be completed— also worst in the league— and although they signed Dante Fowler Jr. in free agency, the pass rush has been mediocre. Fowler, by theway, is a game-time decision for Sunday with a left ankle injury.
It’s a small sample size, and the Falcons have faced the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson and Cowboys’ Dak Prescott, so Trubisky is a step down in class. But the Falcons pass defense basically has picked up from where
it left off a year ago, when it ranked 26th in opponent completion percentage, 25th in yards per attempt and 24th in opponent passer rating.
Bombs away or stay with an evolving shift in the offensive approach? After victories over the Lions and Giants, the Bears are 11th in the NFL with 60 rushing attempts after tying for 20th last year.
“We have come to realize that in two years now, and heading into our third year, schematically this is the direction that we want to go,” Nagy said. “I don’t know if we will always live in this world, I have no idea. But it’s something thatwe felt like, ‘OK, let’s work to our players’ strengths, let’s go ahead and adjust what we need to do schematically and see if it works.’
“So far, it’s been pretty good. We have other things thatwe can do, we have alternative ideas and thoughts. But I just give credit to the coaching staff and players accepting it and now putting it into motion. We are still growing. We are not close to where we need to be. We are figuring it out, and it’s nice to be 2-0 whilewe are doing it.”
Nagy isn’t going to tip his hand in advance of the game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, but it’s worth wondering if the matchups he sees in the passing game will lead to a more aggressive approach, especially considering the Falcons have a high-powered offense and the Bears don’t seem likely to win 17-13— the score by which they beat the Giants on Sunday.
Trubisky’s finest afternoon as a pro came in Week 4 of the 2018 season against a terrible Buccaneers defense. He completed 19 of 26 passes for 354 yards and six touchdowns in a 48-10 demolition.
The Bucs were predictable, and Trubisky came out on fire in a game that unfortunately didn’t mean hewould turned the corner in his career. The Falcons also are predictable, preferring to play a lot of single-high safety with Cover-3 and Cover-1, putting Isaiah Oliver, a second-round pick n 2018, and rookie A.J. Terrell, the 16th pick this year, in a lot of man-coverage situations. They’re both tall and long— the kind of cornerbacks coach Dan Quinn prefers after his tenure as the Seahawks defensive coordinator— but have struggled.
Terrell on Saturday was ruled out for the game after being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. That’s a big blow for the Falcons considering Kendall Sheffield (foot) and Ricardo Allen (elbow) already were ruled out with injuries. It potentially makes a good matchup for the passing game even more inviting.
Offenses have been attacking man coverage around the league unless a defense has lockdown corners, which doesn’t describe Oliver and Terrell— not yet at least. Empty sets, bunch formations and pre-snap motions are giving quarterbacks easy reads, and you’re seeing a lot of pick concepts to spring open targets. With the Falcons struggling to rush the quarterback— they have four sacks— it sets up as a potential bonanza for Trubisky if the Bears use similar strategies to identify coverages before the snap.
Maybe Nagy will look at this as a chance for Trubisky to have a big game and get a real shot of confidence after what has been an uneven start to the season— a very good fourth quarter in Detroit and first half against the Giants but otherwise a lot of what he displayed last season.
“We definitely see enough improvement,” Nagy said. “He knows there’s plenty more that can happen. There’s a couple reads that he had in that (Giants) game that, you know, was No. 1 in the progression and he didn’t get to. He knows that. We talked about it as an offense. Those are the ones that we want to eliminate because they can turn into big plays.
“There’s been a lot of growth with him aswell in regard to his decision-making. We talked last year— itwas a big deal— let’s not make a bad play worse, No. 1, and let’s keep that next-play mentality going, where if something bad happens on one play, let’s make a good play next. He’s been doing that. We haven’t had that domino effect. That, to me, is another sign of growth for him.”
Even some of the good throws for completions haven’t been the best decisions. Trubisky threaded a pass between three Lions defenders in the second quarter, and Allen Robinson made a diving reception for a 22-yard gain. Itwas a high-risk throw when tight end Jimmy Graham was uncovered on a drag route and easily would have gotten more than the 10 yards needed for a first down.
That’s just one example of things the coaches surely want tightened up when reviewing game film and looking at progressions. Trubisky has to see Graham in the clear and take the easy completion for the first down.
“I’m trying to improve in every aspect,” Trubisky said. “I’m assessing every throw, every play I made, the decisions and as a quarterback, you try to play a perfect game. You knowyou’re never going to get there but that’s what you’re striving for. I still need to improve every single week … (but) first game to second game, I feel like it got a little bit better, and that’s the goal to get better thisweek aswell.”
Nagy had a tendency to stray from the run the last two seasons. He has stuck to a more balanced attack thus far, which has no doubt benefited offensive linemen. The run-pass mix against the Falcons will be fascinating for a coach with quarterback DNA in him, a guy who wants to air it out.