The math on passing, or not, a graduated tax
Confession time: I’ve been scratchingmy head all year, each time I come across the explanation that amending the Illinois Constitution requires the approval of “either three-fifths of those voting on the question or a majority of those voting in the election.”
Which is harder to get? Which side gets the advantage if I don’t vote on the question? Why the convoluted lingo?
It’s a relevant conundrum given that voters are already weighing in on the most hotly contested binding referendum in recent history, the proposal on the Nov. 3 ballot to replace our flatrate state income tax— where everyone pays the same percentage— with a graduated-rate system in which people with higher incomes pay a higher tax rate.
The either/or requirement makes interpreting the results feel like one of those vexatious story problems fromjunior high math. If 6 million people go to the polls, and half a million of them leave the referendum question blank on their ballots, what share of the yes/no votes needs to be “yes” for the amendment to pass?
The answer is 54.5% because the “majority of all votes cast” requirementwould be achieved first with 3,000,001 votes, even though it is a lot lower than the three-fifths (60%) of yes/no votes cast— the other path to passage.
And, not uncoincidentally for the purposes of this column, it is approximately the percentage of the vote that Gov. J.B. Pritzker received when he beat incumbent Gov. Bruce Rauner in the 2018 general election in a campaign marked by his strong support of switching to a graduated-rate system.
The basic idea behind this unusually convoluted requirement is that the more the public is engaged with a referendum question, the more the constitution wants to honor the principle of majority rule. But the more the public is tuned out— doesn’t care or doesn’t feel informed enough to vote eitherway— the more the constitutionwants to raise the
standard for passage so that reforms that are obscure, complicated or actually unpopular don’t slip in under the radar.
So, in the example above, if a million voters or more leave the question blank, “yes” has to win 60% of the yes/no votes to carry the day. And if absolutely everyone votes on the question, “yes” just has to win a hair over 50% to prevail.
Political consultant ScottKennedy analyzed the numbers last year at Illinois ElectionsData, an indispensable site for those who like to nerd out on the granularities of politics. He measured the effect of “drop-off,” the percentage of voters who for one reason or another don’t vote on a ballot item, and found that the key number is 16.67%. When the drop-off is that percentage or greater, “yes” has to beat “no” with at least 60% of the vote. But if the drop-off is only 10%, “yes” only needs 55.57% of the vote.
To put it anotherway, if less than 83.33% of those who vote in
any race on the ballot leave the referendum question blank, the 60% threshold for “yes” applies. The necessary margin of victory for “yes” shrinks as the percentage of participating voters rises.
We always see drop-off. Kennedy looked at the vote tallies fromall 24 proposed constitutional amendments in Illinois since 1974 and found only five had a greater participation rate than 83.33%. (In another five elections, more than half of voters left the ballot question blank.) The highest voter-participation ratewas 91.9%, for the 2014 amendment concerning the creation of a victim’s bill of rights, which passed with 78.4% approval.
ButKennedy noted a potentially relevant historical trend. The last three referendumquestions and four of the last five have passed the 83.33% line because, he speculated, “many counties in the state nowhave touch screen votingmachines or other electronic methods, and it’s common
for those voting systems towarn voters when they’ve undervoted any questions.”
State constitutions aren’t as foundational as theU.S. Constitution, but the vast majority of states make it much more difficult to amend them than simply to change a law, which is as it should be if the idea of a constitution is to mean much at all. The majority of states require amendments to begin in the legislature, and all but one— Delaware— require some form of voter approval for ratification.
I read through and categorized the procedures for amending the constitutions via legislative action in all 50 states and found that the most common, used in 16 states, requires approval fromtwothirds of the members of the legislature and then just a simple majority of yes/no voters. Illinois requires three-fifths approval in both houses before an amendment goes to the voters, a lower standard that’s also used in seven other states.
Eight states can pass amendments with straight majority support fromvoters, but only after a majority of lawmakers approve them in consecutive legislative sessions.
And eight states make it easy, requiring only theOKof amajority of lawmakers and a majority of voters to enact amendments.
Illinois is one of only seven states where the total number of voters of any sort can figure into determining the outcome.
And if you think our system is confusing, considerTennessee, where a proposed amendment to the state constitution first has to get a majority support in one legislative session and then twothirds support in the following legislative session. After that, the proposal is submitted to voters at the next gubernatorial election where, to pass, it needs a number of “yes” votes equal to more than half of all the votes cast for governor
Yeah, my brain hurts too.
All you really need to knowif you plan to participate in the upcoming election is that voting on this hotly contested referendum is a betterway to have a say in the outcome than leaving the question blank, which might only help the “no” side depending on what other voters do.
Mark your choice. The nerds will take it fromthere.
Re: Tweets
The winner of thisweek’s reader poll to select the funniest tweetwas, “If I getCOVID-19, howlong does it normally take for the helicopter to come pick me up?” by frequent finalist Abe Yospe, an elementary school principal inWest Jordan, Utah, who tweets as @Cheeseboy22.
The poll appears at chicago tribune.com/zorn, where you can read all the finalists. For an early alert when each new poll is posted, sign up for the Change of Subject email newsletter at chicagotribune.com/newsletters.