Will Baez sign a contract extension?
This is the seventh in a series of position-by-position analyses of the Cubs after the 2020 season. Here are four questions about the shortstop position.
1. How valid were Javier Baez’s complaints about the lack of access to in-gamevideo?
Boston Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez was just as furious as Baez over the limitations on video access, and Martinez hit only .213 with a stunningly low .680 OPS. Among other top sluggers who struggled were Nolan Arena do, Joey Gallo, Josh Bell and Shohei Ohtani, although the impact of the lack of video access on their performances isn’t known.
But this didn’t seem to be a problem when the Cubs started 13-3 with players embracing the challenge of becoming resourceful. That included watching their teammates’ at-bats, noticing the tendencies of the opposing pitcher and sharing the information instead of heading to the clubhouse to look at their own at-bats.
“Not having the in-game video hasmade baseball conversation in the dugout really cool,” hitting coach Anthony Iapoce said after the hot start.
The ban on in-game video access was instituted as part of COVID-19 health and safety protocols, although Baez thought 29 teams were paying the price for the Houston Astros’ 2017 sign- stealing scandal.
The lack of video access might seem harsh. But as more than one philosopher has said, baseball is a game of adjustments.
Even Baez backed off his earlier comments after being asked in mid-September about the difficulty of hitting without video access.
2. How vast was the contrast between Baez’s offense and defense?
The numbers are incredible. Baez’s strikeout rate increased from 27.8% in 2019 to 31.9% in 2020. Although Baez isn’t known for his plate discipline, his walk rate dipped to a career-low3%.
His contact rate sank to 63.9%, partly because opposing pitchers increased their slider usage against him from 24.7% in 2019 to 30.6% in 2020, according to Fan Graphs. His percentage of balls hit to the opposite field dipped from27.9 to 23.5.
Baez’s weighted runs created plus sank to 57 after posting a 131 mark in 2018 and 114 in 2019. The league average is 100.
Baez was charged with eight errors — six on errant throws. But he was credited with seven defensive runs saved, and he bailed pitchers out of several jams with strong throws to complete double plays.
During the 2018 National League wildcard game, one scout said he could correctly predict each pitch because he believed Baez was tipping pitches. During the Cubs’ last homestand, Baez was moving before a pitch was delivered on a few occasions.
3. What are the chances Baez re-signs with the Cubs and bypasses free agency in 2022?
Before the COVID-19 pandemic caused a3 1⁄ -month shutdown, the chances were
2 looking promising. Asource confirmed the Cubs and Baez’s representatives were making progress toward an extension, but there was some uncertainty as to how close they really were to finalizing a deal.
Since then, the financial landscape has changed dramatically. And even as far back as January at Cubs Convention, team President Theo Epstein discussed the challenge of winning and developing the next core.
The financial uncertainty probably carries more concern than Baez’s subpar 2020 season. Throughout his career, Baez has shown the ability to rebound from past struggles. He overcame a 44-error season at Class A Daytona and Double-A Tennessee in 2013 to become one of the best shortstops in the majors.
After striking out 95 times in only 213 at-bats in his rookie season in 2014, Baez lowered his strikeout rate to24% two years later. That was still high, but he did show improvement, thanks in part to his knack for hitting pitches on the fringes or outside the strike zone.
The potential free-agent shortstop class after the 2021 season is dazzling, with All-Star talents such as Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story and Baez.
But Baez has been open about his desire to stay in Chicago, where his jersey sales lead all baseball players.
“I hope I never leave this city in my whole career,” Baez said after the Cubs were eliminated by the Miami Marlins in the playoffs. “But anything can happen.”
4. If Baez is traded, whowould take over at shortstop?
Nico Hoerner filled in admirably after Baez missed nearly all of September 2019 because of a hairline fracture in his left thumb, and he quickly emerged as the sole backup in 2020.
But shortly after his promotion to the majors, Hoerner was working on altering his arm stroke in an effort to improve the strength of his throws.
Hoerner fits the preference of former Cubs manager Joe Maddon to have a shortstop with “no chrome.” Maddon’s description wasn’t a slight toward Baez as much as he wanted a shortstop who could consistently make routine plays.
Hoerner played shortstop during his final two seasons at Stanford (2017-18), and the Cubs believed he was athletic and versatile enough to be drafted in the first round.
But there is a big drop-off in runproduction potential between Baez and Hoerner. The Cubs could survive with Hoerner at shortstop if they upgrade offensively at other positions.
Hoerner’s playing time, however, dipped slightly toward the latter stages of the season, raising the question of whether he will evolve into a superutility player. He still needs plenty of work at the plate but has displayed a willingness to improve.
Regardless of whether Baez stays, the anticipation will start immediately for Cristian Hernandez, a 16-year-old Dominican player the Cubs are expected to select in the international free-agent draft Jan. 15.