History suggests Pace could have bold plan
Is a trade for Carr or a move up in the draft for a QB in the works?
With the start of the new league year less than a month away, Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy surely have had time to sharpen their plans when it comes to finding a quarterback for 2021.
It’s a multilayered process, and with so much uncertainty and so many other franchises in the same boat — searching for the answer at the position — the Bears probably need at least three or four options they’re comfortable with, understanding how the cost to acquire each will affect their ability to fill other roster wants and needs.
In keeping Pace and Nagy in control, Chairman George McCaskey must allow them the freedom to do what they want to solve the organization’s neverending predicament at quarterback. Either empower them to go about it how they see fit without constraint or send them out the door.
They’re both still at 1920 Football Drive.
Allowing Pace and Nagy to maintain control could cost the Bears in the long term if they swing big for a quarterback and miss, but McCaskey entrusted them with football power, and he has to hope they are competent and not just collaborative.
One approach to filling the quarterback spot and addressing a glaring need for an offensive tackle is to find a QB who can be acquired via trade without losing this year’s first-round pick at No. 20 or sign a free agent. It probably leads only to a bridge option at quarterback, but the Bears have not used a first-round pick on a tackle since 2011, and two or three intriguing options could be available when they’re on the clock.
Pace and Nagy are laser focused on winning in 2021, so taking a long-term view wouldn’t align with their vision, and trying to read the tea leaves to determine which direction they’re headed, we must attempt to see it through their eyes.
While texting with a player personnel director for another team this week, he asked what I thought the Bears were going to do at quarterback. I advanced my idea that they could seek a veteran with experience and then add to the offensive line, asking him what he thought of Ryan Fitzpatrick, the kind of aggressive quarterback who might take more chances to win games than someone like Nick Foles, the only Bears passer under contract.
The player personnel director speculated the Bears could try to engineer a massive trade into the top five to draft a quarterback, which I hadn’t considered seriously because the price would be massive and competition to move up could be thick. BYU’s Zach Wilson and Ohio State’s Justin Fields are potential topfive picks after Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence presumably goes No. 1 to the Jacksonville Jaguars. North Dakota State’s Trey Lance looms as an interesting player but has limited game experience at a small program, not the kind of prospect Pace and Nagy can gamble on.
“Moving from 20 to top five is a king’s ransom,” the source texted. “And the right guy has to be there for the move obviously. Then you have to sell it. And people have to trust giving away multiple picks for that guy are worth it after they committed to Mike Glennon then Mitch (Trubisky) then Foles and now??? I imagine they have to do something to get better there; otherwise they’re basically returning the same team.”
It’s an interesting theory, and history shows that when general managers and coaches are feeling pressure to produce, they sometimes will make a big draft investment in a quarterback, thinking it will buy them more time to develop the prospect. It’s precisely the direction Pace went in 2017 entering this third year with the Bears when he traded up to select Trubisky with the No. 2 pick. That plan didn’t work, and the Bears are left with a defense they believe can help make a deep playoff run but an offense consistently mired at the bottom of the rankings.
The trade-up scenario is perhaps more possible if one of the quarterbacks the Bears like slips out of the top five by a few picks. A trade up still would require a bundle of picks but wouldn’t be over the top. However, the idea the Bears could wait for the draft to take a shot at a top prospect couldn’t be done without a contingency in place because if the target they have in mind is not available, the price is prohibitive or another team trumps their offer, then what? Pace and Nagy could be stuck in late April with few options.
Maybe the Bears won’t shoot big and would go with a bridge option and cross their fingers that a new quarterback with an improved cast around him — think an upgraded offensive line and another playmaker to pair with Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney — make a difference while the defense with Sean Desai now in charge makes strides.
Pace doesn’t just talk about being aggressive; he’ has done it time and again, whether it’s moving up in the draft several times, trading for outside linebacker Khalil Mack or going big in free agency for veteran pass rusher Robert Quinn.
So it would not be surprising if Pace considered a bold move up in the draft or perhaps an expensive trade for someone such as Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. Both scenarios would complicate efforts to improve the roster around the position and likely would compromise future draft capital in 2022 and possibly 2023, but the Bears have empowered Pace, and Nagy is entering Year 4 still looking for a quarterback to run the offense he came from Kansas City dreaming of building.
Fantasizing about a trade to acquire Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson isn’t realistic given the Bears’ draft position, lack of young marquee players to bundle with picks and the uncertainly about what direction the Texans will go with their self-created mess.
It remains to be seen if the Raiders will make Carr available — there has been conflicting information. Some are adamant coach Jon Gruden, who holds the power for the Raiders, loves Carr. Others have speculated the Raiders are ready to move on if they can get a big return, and if that’s the case, they at least are doing a good job of not telegraphing that in order to maintain leverage.
The cost to swing a trade for Carr probably would not be as exorbitant as moving from No. 20 into the top five to draft a quarterback, and adding a veteran quarterback would better position Nagy to win right away. But if Carr is made available — and that’s a big if — it would be a trade on the Raiders’ terms and they would expect plenty in return.
Marcus Mariota could be acquired from the Raiders for much less than Carr, but he’s a year removed from losing his starting job in Tennessee. The Raiders could release Mariota to free up cap space.
The Bears could consider trying to outbid the New Orleans Saints for free agent Jameis Winston, but all indications are he is the likely successor to Drew Brees. And which is he going to choose: staying with Sean Payton in a high-powered offense with a greater supporting cast or roll the dice with a Bears coaching staff that will enter the season on the hot seat?
Otherwise the Bears will revert to a less ambitious plan at quarterback that involves a trade. Rule out Carson Wentz, who went to the Colts on Thursday. Other than Mariota, Jimmy Garoppolo could be available if the 49ers acquire an upgrade. After that, they’re looking at veteran free-agent options such as Fitzpatrick or Andy Dalton.
As a last resort, perhaps the Bears would consider whether Foles isn’t a broken former Super Bowl MVP — as he appeared last season against top-flight defenses and with a struggling line — or maybe run it back with Trubisky. Neither option seems likely considering the last three seasons.
Given Pace’s track record for chasing players he covets and Nagy’s desire for a reboot to the offense, it’s worth considering that the Bears’ preferred plan is dramatic.
If not, as the player personnel director said, they run the risk of returning pretty much the same team in 2021, one that fell well short of expectations by going 8-8 the last two seasons.