Foreign trade to remain robust

Exports, imports expected to sustain uptrend after strong first-quarter performance

China’s foreign trade will maintain upward momentum in the first half of 2021 after experiencing strong export performance between January and March, officials and experts said on April 13.

Driven by robust demand due to the rapid recovery in major economies, China’s foreign trade amounted to 8.47 trillion yuan ($1.29 trillion) in the first quarter of this year, up 29.2 percent year-on-year, according to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs.

The substantial trade figures are partly due to the low base from the first quarter of last year, when foreign trade was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, Customs spokesman Li Kuiwen said.

“Yet even compared with the same period in 2018 and 2019, the country’s foreign trade in the first quarter still saw an increase of 25.3 percent and 20.5 percent, respectively,” he said.

With the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index in major economies further improving in March, the official predicted that overseas economic recoveries will continue to accelerate and support China’s exports.

The country’s exports soared 38.7 percent on a yearly basis to 4.61 trillion yuan in the first quarter, while imports jumped 19.3 percent to 3.86 trillion yuan. Trade surplus surged 690.6 percent year-on-year to 759.29 billion yuan, Customs data showed.

The government policies played a vital role in cutting costs, preventing risks and expanding the market for export-oriented companies, said Yu Yi, a spokesman for the Beijing-based China Council for the Promotion of International Trade.

Thanks in part to the soaring demand for goods in markets in the European Union and the United States — boosted by their governments’ fiscal stimulus measures — there was significant growth in China’s exports in the first quarter of 2021, with those to the EU rising 36.4 percent year-on-year and exports to the US surging 61.3 percent.

The outlook for China’s exports, advanced by vaccine availability and stimulus policies globally, will remain positive this year, with new business models such as cross-border e-commerce emerging as a new engine of the country’s foreign trade, said Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation in Beijing.

Foreign trade through cross-border e-commerce channels surged 46.5 percent on a yearly basis to 419.5 billion yuan in the first quarter, Customs data showed.

Experts said that while China’s foreign trade will continue to climb in the second quarter, its overall growth rates could slow down. The recovery of overseas manufacturers, together with high global commodity and material prices, and the lagging effect of yuan appreciation, will put pressure on China’s exports in the current quarter.

A recovery of other emerging economies’ supply capacity will also affect China’s exports and some orders may be diverted to other countries, said Zhang Yongjun, a researcher at the Beijing-based China Center for International Economic Exchanges.

China’s trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, its largest trading partner, jumped 26.1 percent year-on-year to 1.24 trillion yuan in the three months to March.

Also, exports and imports with 14 trade partners of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership grew 22.9 percent to 2.67 trillion yuan, accounting for 31.5 percent of the nation’s total foreign trade volume.